In the three-year period 2017-2019, the stock of non-performing loans in the balance sheets of Italian banks is expected to decrease by approximately 30 billion euros. The Italian Banking Association (Abi) estimates it in the AFO forecast report in which, specifying that three quarters of the reduction would concern non-performing loans pertaining to companies. At the end of 2019, according to the ABI, the non-performing loans/loans ratio should be 2,7%, a value almost 2 points lower than in 2016.
Furthermore, according to the report, the decline in non-performing loans will translate into faster growth in loans: over the three-year period, the stock of credit granted to residents should increase by around 140 billion euro, with an average annual change of 2,6%. . "Taking into account only performing loans, therefore net of the outflows of non-performing loans, the average growth rate of loans would be equal to 4%", reads the test.
As regards the country's growth, the ABI writes that "GDP would increase by 1,3% in the current year, up by four tenths of a point compared to what was done in 2016, to then stabilize at these levels also in the next two years".
