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Two-speed banks but stock exchanges always nervous about the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Banks more up than in the red on the stock market but stock markets in Europe and the US remain restless due to uncertainty over Ukraine

Two-speed banks but stock exchanges always nervous about the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine crisis

European stock markets are confirmed as weak in the last session of the week, while the diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis still appears far away. The mood deteriorated in the afternoon as Wall Street moved negatively.

Business Square it loses 0,61% and retreats to 26.506 basis points. Frankfurt is in black jersey, if you don't consider the new splash of Moscow (-3,35%). The Dax drops by 1,46%. TO Paris, -0,25%, luxury still dictates the climate, with Hermes in sharp decline (-4,14%), in the light of sales that grew less than expected in the fourth quarter. Kering (Gucci), on the other hand, consolidates its gains, +0,41%, after yesterday's leap.

The declines are fractional a London -0,31% Amsterdam -0,84% and Madrid -0,91%.

On the currency front, the dollar index appears to be slightly up and the euro trades around 1,132. Risk aversion penalized cryptocurrencies starting with bitcoin, which moves below $40.000.

Among the raw materialsgold it surpassed $1.900 an ounce for the first time since last June. After hitting a high of $1.903, it is currently trading near $1.900.

The sign has changed Petroleumafter OPEC+ sources told Reuters the cartel would work to integrate Iran into limiting crude supplies if the country finds a meeting point with world powers to revive the nuclear deal.

Brent crude oil marks a rise of 0,83% to 93,75 dollars a barrel.

As regards the government bond market, T-Bond prices are rising and yields are falling.

The Italian secondary instead closes in red, with lo spreads in growth to 163 basis points (+1,19%). The rate of the BTP is unchanged, +1,84%, while that of the Bund drops to +0,21% (from +0,23%). The tears in the majority that support the Draghi government, after the problems in the committee seen yesterday, do not help the Italian paper.

Markets still at the mercy of the crisis in Ukraine

To take stock of the Ukrainian crisis, at 20 pm Italian time, European leaders, EU leaders, US President Joe Biden and the NATO secretary general will meet by videoconference. Moscow continues to say that US intelligence reports of its imminent attack are "false", but in the meantime, tomorrow, Russian forces will hold new exercises and plan to launch ballistic and cruise missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin will personally oversee the maneuvers, which will also simulate a nuclear attack.

In this climate, continental stock exchanges have changed sign several times. There was some optimism in the morning following news that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had agreed to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov next week. The listless start of Wall Street (which yesterday archived its worst session of the year) and the growing weakness of US stocks however had a negative impact on the final performance.

Piazza Affari, purchases on the Bpm and Eni counter

In a session also characterized by some technical maturities, since the option contracts on shares and indices dated February 2022 have come to an end, the plus sign is back on some banks. Queen of the price list is Bpm bank, +1,88%, which remains attractive in view of a restructuring in the sector, although according to press reports the interest of Unicredit (-0,33%) on the colleague would have cooled down due to the high prices, or Credit Agricole Italia.

Among the financial they are in evidence Finecobank, +1,04%; Bper +0,54%; Mediobanca + 0,69%.

Closes session among oil stocks up 1,02% Eni, dopo the 2021 results, archived with an adjusted net profit of 4,7 billion, the highest since 2012. For the CEO Claudio Descalzi, 2022 will also be "an important year of performance and strategic results".

The row of discounts starts with Diasorin -2,86%, followed by Nexi -2,34%, disappointed by the postponement of the lowering of the cash limit. Stm down, -2,25%, alarmed by the reverse trend of American technology stocks.

The confidence of European consumers is falling

The macroeconomic picture of the day shows some shadows in Europe and in the USA.

In the Old Continent, consumer confidence drops in February according to the Commission's flash estimate. In the euro area, the drop was 0,3 to -8,8 points; in the EU -0,2, -10,2 points.

In the USA, the super-index of the economy (LEI), compiled by the private research group Conference Board, was disappointing and fell by 0,3% to 119,6 points in January, after +0,7% in December and +0,8 % of November. Expectations were for an unchanged figure.

Central banks still under pressure

Finally, the hammering of the European and North American central banks by members of their respective boards continues.

Peter Kazimier (governor of the Slovak central bank and member of the executive council of the ECB) Frankfurt should end its net purchases of bonds in the summer. The program of purchases (App), created to fight deflation after the debt crisis and scaled up with the pandemic, is outliving its purpose according to Kazimir: “The risks for which it was created have subsided while the negative side effects are becoming more significant". "Trading activity weakens in August, so that would be a good natural time to close the program."

Overseas it is still the falcon James Bullard to take a nosedive on the subject of rates. The president of the St. Louis Fed is in favor of a one percentage point increase in interest rates by July XNUMX, as it would be a "normalization", "manageable in many ways". rates could lead to a recession. Also, an unscheduled FOMC meeting "is something to consider."

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