The wave of non-performing loans due to Covid will not be as dramatic as that of the early 10s, which culminated in 2015 when Italian banks were saddled with over 360 billion NPLs, with double-digit annual growth (+22% in 2012, +19% in 2013, +17% in 2014). Instead, in 2020 the stock remained unchanged and in 2021 it will increase by only 5%, well below forecasts, thanks to the moratoriums on mortgages and all the support measures issued by the last two governments in favor of businesses. But above all, according to the Market Watch presented by Banca Ifis on the occasion of traditional Npl Meeting at the end of September, this time the financial system was much more ready: not only did the stock of NPLs grow much less than expected between 2020 and 2021, but the increase in exposure by banks was even less significant. "The figure is benign - comments the CEO of Banca Ifis Frederik Geertman - but let's not forget that the total of non-performing loans will in any case rise to an all-time high in 2023 and that many companies have gone bankrupt or will go bankrupt".
However much of this new stock of Non-performing loans and UTPs (unlikely-to-pay, i.e. debts that are unlikely to be paid but which can still return to performing status) has been and will be digested by sector operators, which clearly include Banca Ifis, who continue to purchase portfolios, "allowing banks - adds Geertman – not to overexpose yourself and to continue to support the recovery. This too means contributing to the recovery and it is no coincidence that the title of today's event is Recovery Builders”. To give a parameter, the entire stock in 2023 should reach 430 billion euros, exceeding the 362 in 2015 (in 2022 they will rise to 395 billion) of which, however, only a quarter, just over 100 billion, will weigh on bank balance sheets, unlike the years up to 2015, when it was close to 100%. According to the Banca Ifis study, NPL portfolio sales could reach 2021 billion in 34 (38 in 2020), with a 26% incidence of the secondary market and with the prospect of rising to 40 in 2022 and 2023. Growing also operations on Utp portfolios (11 billion, against 9 in 2020).
The Npe Ratio (non-performing exposure) of the banks will therefore remain absolutely under control, on this side of the target level of 5% requested by the ECB: in 2014 it exceeded 17%, in 2021 it will stop at 4,7%, but be careful a possible upswing in the following years. Operators in the Npl sector, in addition to relieving banks in their mission, have created a market within the market in recent years, itself thriving and growing: the "collectors" of non-performing loans invoice, hire (although it seems that even here it is difficult to find the skills on the labor market), produce profitability and invest in technology. “The impact on bank balance sheets – explains Geertman – will be manageable thanks to the derisking operated by the institutions and the presence of the NPL investment and servicing industry which has specialized by investing in skills and technologies. Today these actors are able to absorb non-performing loans effectively and efficiently and are protagonists of the recovery”.
However, there is also a novelty of this last period, which gives an idea of the momentum of good credibility that Italy is going through on the financial markets: “More and more foreign operators are buying Italian portfolios – confesses Geertman -. It can be said that a Dragon effect is also taking place in the Npl sector“. Demonstrating, once again, that the market is sensitive to all the details.
