European stock markets close a difficult week with a good rebound, looking more at the progress made yesterday by Wall Street than at the general picture and today's lame performance of the American stock market. Bull is trying to reclaim the momentum, despite Federal Reserve and European Central Bank minutes showing that many bankers are ready to step up efforts to curb inflation, in a macroeconomic environment which, according to BofA, is rapidly deteriorating and could push the US economy into a recession.
On the warfront it is unclear how the Kremlin's statement that its "special operation" in Ukraine could end in the "not too distant future" should be interpreted.
Milan queen in Europe
Business Square takes the lion's share and appreciates by 2,13% to 24.819 points, with the speculative appeal returning to banking thanks to the news that Crédit Agricole has become the leading shareholder of Banco Bpm (+10,24%). Green also dominates Frankfurt + 1,46% Paris + 1,34% Madrid + 1,65% Amsterdam + 1,15% London + 1,51%.
It gets cold Moscow, down with both the index-denominated in rubles (-1,5%), both with the index denominated in dollars (-1,2%), while the European Union has formally adopted the fifth package of sanctions against Russia. In particular, the ban on coal imports will come into force in the second week of August.
The French elections scare the euro
On the currency market, the ruble's rally continues, trading at around 75,7 against the dollar, the highest since June 2020. The reduction in the reference rate by the Russian central bank, from 20% to 17%.
However, the euro remains in check, trading against the greenback at around 1,08. The sanctions are felt on the single currency, on imports and exports to Russia, but also the French elections, now imminent given that we will vote on Sunday for the first round. Few points hope the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, from President Emmanuel Macron and the effects can also be seen on bonds: the spread between French and German ten-year bonds has continued to widen in recent days, reaching the maximum since April 2020 at 56 basis points.
Piazza Affari is tonic with many matches on the pitch
Piazza Affari is the scene in this phase of many interesting movements linked to as many possible financial items. In the foreground today is Banco Bpm, after the blitz surprise by Crédit Agricole, which bought 9,18%, with an operation that "had not been agreed in advance", as specified by the Milanese bank. The move brings attention back to the sector and pushes buying up as well Bper + 3,96% Unicredit + 3,03% Understanding + 1,565, Popular of Sondrio +4,55%. Outside the main basket, it shines Soul Holding, +7,89%, of which Banco Bpm is the main shareholder with 19,4%. In justification of these movements, some analysts point out that Crédit Agricole is the controlling shareholder of Amundi and that in the past speculations had emerged about Amundi's possible interest in Anima.
Stay on the shields Atlantia, +8,72%, with press rumors that Edizione Holding and Blackstone could launch a takeover bid for the entire share capital of the company around Easter at a price of around 24 euros, aiming for the delisting. The rumors come after the no of Edizione, the reference shareholder, to the proposal of the Gip and Brookfield funds for a possible acquisition of the motorway and airport management group.
Massive purchases of oil stocks return to the Ftse Mib: Tenaris + 4,5% Eni + 4,19% Saipem +3,14%, while black gold climbs, with Brent trading up 0,87% to 101,44 dollars a barrel.
Bene Moncler, +3,16%, promoted by Barclays to "overweight" from "equal weight" thanks to the more defensive profile of the luxury group compared to its competitors and its attractive valuations.
Instead, it appears to be declining Telecom, -0,93%, with Kkr's takeover bid edging away. The board of directors of the telecommunications company has decided not to follow up on the request of the US fund to start a due diligence, since Kkr has not confirmed the previous expression of interest and the price indicated.
Down Amplifon -2,1%; nexi -0,94%; Campari -0,69%.
Spreads down; Bank of Italy: GDP falls in the first quarter
The Bank of Italy estimates a 0,7% drop in GDP in the first quarter of 2022 on the previous period and a 2% loss for industrial production. A picture that reinforces fears of stagflation i.e. high inflation and low growth.
They are also made in the economic bulletin of the central institute three scenarios, in a context of war, which however do not constitute an update of the forecasts.
In the most severe scenario, which takes into account an interruption of Russian gas flows only partially compensated by other sources, the Italian GDP drops by almost half a percentage point in 2022 and 2023 and inflation approaches 8% in 2022, to then drop to 2,3% in 2023.
In the most favorable scenario, with a rapid resolution of the conflict, GDP growth is around 3% in 2022 and 2023, while inflation rises to 4% and 1,8% respectively.
Meanwhile Goldman Sachs he believes that the ECB may launch a rate hike (the first in 10 years) in September, in the light of the continued run-up in prices and growing concerns about second-round effects. The ECB should bring the deposit rate to zero with two increases of 0,25 basis points each in September and December, but a first increase in July is not excluded if the impact of the war in Ukraine were to be greater than expected and showed signs of strong pressure on wages.
For the record, world food prices jumped nearly 13 percent in March to a new record as war in Ukraine caused turmoil in markets for staple grains and edible oils, the agency said. food of the United Nations.
As regards the trend of Italian paper today, there is a drop in spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration at 165 basis points (-1,83%). However, rates are on the rise: +2,36% for the Btp; +0,71% for the Bund.
