A 2014 of growth for the global luxury sector. This was revealed by the Altagamma Observatory on World Markets, conducted in collaboration with Bain & Company, according to which a year of growth between 4% and 6% at constant exchange rates is expected for the sector and a market that is proceeding more and more towards stabilization.
The sector, therefore, seems to be moving towards a new phase of normalisation. After 2013 closed with a growth of 6,5% at constant rates and despite "the absence in the short term of explosive phenomena such as China has seen in recent years, the mature markets are demonstrating a greater ability to react to the crisis" giving result in a more stable and healthy growth trend, between 4% and 6% at constant exchange rates in the next few years”, commented Claudia D'Arpizio of Bain & Company.
Again according to D'Arpizio, who presented the Altagamma Observatory in Milan, the first quarter of 2014 recorded a performance in line with that of the previous year, with real growth around 6%, dampened to 2-3% by impact of foreign exchange.
Going more specifically, growth of 9% is forecast for Japan, 8% for the Middle East, 7% for Asia, 6% for the Americas, 4% for Europe, while for Rest of the World an increase of 7% is estimated. The best performing categories, according to Altagamma Consensus forecasts, should be accessories, jewelery and watches (+6%), followed by apparel (+5%). Corporate margins are also growing, with average Ebitda expected to increase by 7% year-on-year.
In the global luxury market, the weight of Chinese consumers remains very strong, both on the domestic market and abroad, so much so that about 30% of luxury goods consumption will be in the hands of the Chinese. On the other hand, given the devaluation of the yen, the Japanese have returned to spending heavily on the local market.
The Italian market remains weak, especially as regards local consumption, while the United States is proposing itself as the new engine of growth. Brazil also slowed down, where the World Cup had a strong negative impact on local consumption.
