Agreement or postponement? A few hours before the extraordinary summit of the Eurogroup, after a weekend of feverish consultations, the Greece dossier seems open to various solutions, including the postponement to the latest useful date, 3 December. The Eurogroup has indeed decided that Greece has need two more years to achieve the budgetary objectives, but has not yet established with which measures to finance the further disbursement. Meanwhile, the IMF, exposed for 120 billion, is pressing for a solution that finally makes Athens' debt sustainable, as the non-European partners of the Fund are demanding.
There are four possible solutions: 1) a reduction in interest rates; 2) a repurchase or buyback program by Athens of outstanding bonds, currently at a steep discount; 3) the restructuring of the profits of national banks on securities purchased in 2010; 4) last hypothesis, matured over the weekend: a further cut in the Greek debt. This was revealed by "Spiegel" online, reporting that in the ongoing confrontations with the countries of the Eurozone, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (the so-called Troika) would have asked the creditor countries to give up their half of the credit.
How will it end? Christine Lagarde, wiry director general of the IMF, used an English expression: the ending will not come “until the fat lady sings”, or “until the fat girl sings”. Frau Angela Merkel didn't like it.
The first reactions of the markets to the outcome of the elections in Catalonia are worrying, given the growth of the pro-independence party front.
ASIA
The markets have already expressed their opinion: in Asia the euro continues to fall (fourth session down) at 1,2971, oil retreats (-0.07%).
On the contrary, the excellent performance of the US Christmas campaign favored a bullish start for share prices. Tokyo climbs 0,76%, as semiconductor land Taiwan continues to recover.
In great evidence the car stocks starting with Toyota +2,3%.
Instead, the slow retreat of the Shanghai index -0,2% continues, now one step away from the psychological threshold of 2000 points. Great anticipation for October industrial profits data, to be announced tomorrow morning.
Il New York Times he insists: a large part of the fortune of Wen Jiabao, the outgoing Chinese premier, is linked to the decision taken in 1999, in the midst of the Asian crisis, not to proceed with the dismemberment of Ping, the financial giant that is now worth more than Aig and the other groups Use too big to fail. But, shortly before Beijing rushed to the rescue of the giant wounded by the crisis, the premier's family stocked up on shares: Taihong, the family financial company, bought the shares in 2002 at a quarter of the price paid by HSBC. In 2004, the latest public data, the 7 million invested were already worth 3,7 billion dollars. And that was just the beginning…
The Egyptian Stock Exchange closed Sunday's session with a loss of 9,6%, marking the third all-time low in its history.
AMERICA
Wall Street restarts today at full capacity after the Black Friday weekend, which brought excellent news: Holiday sales posted overall growth of 13 percent from a year ago to $59,1 billion, a success, however, largely linked to promotions and discounts.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is up sharply, the highest since December 2002.
On Friday in New York the session ended with a positive sign: Dow Jones, +1,35% S&P +1,30% and Nasdaq +1,38%.
EUROPA
European bankers are asking to postpone the introduction of Basel 3 scheduled for 2013. After the US decided to postpone, without setting a new date, the introduction of the new banking parameters envisaged by Basel, the federation of European banks asked the EU for a similar attitude to avoid an "unbridgeable gap" in competition, equal to the Approximately 20% of the capital commitment. The first response from EU Commissioner Michel Barnier was negative. But the lobbying activity continues.
The postponement of the application of the Basel 3 rules "could better help the recovery phase" expected in the second half of 2013. This is what the president Abi Giuseppe Mussari explained according to which there would be "thus a greater availability of credit to businesses and a resumption of disbursement of real estate loans".
Excellent week for the Eurostoxx index and the Frankfurt Dax which gained around 5%.
ITALY
Piazza Affari also gained 5,2% in the eighth month.
The Bund-Btp spread is trading at 330 basis points, -4 basis points with a yield of 4,73%. Excellent news from yields on short-term rates that fell to 1,95% for two-year government bonds and below 1,45% for 12 months, both at their lowest levels in March. In July, before Mario Draghi's statements on the shield of the ECB the two-year yield had exceeded 4%
RCS Mediagroup under the spotlight after the river meeting that kept chairman Angelo Provasoli and RCS directors busy for almost the whole day yesterday. No minutes, no communication, but the subject of the conclave at Mac Kinsey's Milan office was the new plan, in an advanced stage of preparation, which CEO Pietro Scott Jovane is developing with the help of the American consultancy firm. The figures on which to reason with a view to the final approval of the plan, scheduled for the board of directors on 19 December, were also provided. The overall requirement is around 7-800 million to be raised with sales, synergies and capital transactions.
In summary, the last session of the week saw:
Finmeccanica +1,2%. According to rumors, Agusta Westland will participate in the 5 billion dollar tender for the supply of rescue helicopters to the US Air Force.
Buzzi Unicem it gained 2,5%, continuing the good momentum (yesterday +4,7%) due to the double promotion of Ubs and Bernstein.
Banks rallied thanks to spreads. Ubi + 0,5% Mount Paschi unchanged, Intesa Sanpaolo +1%. Yesterday the bank launched a 1,25 billion euro bond. It is a 10-year fixed-rate covered bond (OBG) secured for the most part by residential and commercial mortgage loans assigned by Intesa Sanpaolo.
Société Générale cut the target price to 1,15 euro from 1,30 euro Banco Popolare. According to rumors, Agos Ducato, the subsidiary with 39% active in consumer credit, will lose money in 2012 and 2013.
Saipem it gained 1,7%. Shares accelerated on Friday after the company announced it had won new onshore drilling contracts worth a combined approximately $500 million in Saudi Arabia, South America and Kazakhstan, for the utilization of 13 rigs, three of which will be specially built.
A2A rose by 1,9%. The company is about to leave Metroweb in favor of Fondo Strategico Italiano.
Atlantia it gained 1,1%. The group of motorway concessionaires has successfully closed the offer of 1 billion bonds reserved for retail.
Telecom Italy +0,4%: on December 4, Tim Partecipacoes' board of directors should discuss the new industrial plan relating to the Brazilian activities. The document will be presented by the CEO Andrea Mangoni. The title was promoted by HSBC to neutral from the previous one underweight.
Luxottica +0,8% reached new all-time highs at 30,87 euros after the purchase of 40% of the Salmoiraghi & Viganò chain of eyewear stores at a price of 40 million euros.
