The first accounts are being made on Atlantia, after Thursday's agreement with the government on Autostrade, the entry of Cdp, the downsizing of the Benettons. And the first accounts indicate an estimated cost of between 3 and 4 billion for the capital increase which should open the doors to the entry of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti with a 33% share. Realizations are triggered on the stock exchange: after the negative peak at 11,5 euros and Thursday's rally at 14,4 euros, traders collect. And perhaps they are thanking Prime Minister Conte for the tirade on the revocation of the concession on Monday morning, which burned a few billion in capitalization in a few hours.
But let's see how the agreement on Aspi (Autostrade per l'Italia) reached in the early hours of dawn on Thursday could be articulated. Meanwhile, it should be remembered that on the basis of the agreement, the concessionaire has put on the plate a compensation package for the collapse of the Morandi Bridge – including compensation, tariff cuts and investments – totaling 3,4 billion.
The agreement also provides for the possibility for CDP to become the reference shareholder through a capital increase of between 3 and 4 billion. The CDP - controlled by the Treasury for 82,7% and for the rest in the hands of some banking foundations - by subscribing to the recapitalization (which, on the other hand, the Benettons would not adhere to) will find itself in the hands of a 33% stake which corresponds to a current valuation of Autostrade between 9 and 12 billion, according to rumors reported by various newspapers. The 3-4 billion that CDP will disburse will lead it to a role of reference shareholder similar to what already happens for Eni and Enel, subsidiaries with a share of around 30%. The recapitalization benefits Aspi which strengthens and rebalances its assets, currently unbalanced with respect to debts, after the change introduced by the Milleproroghe 2019 to compensation in the event of revocation of the concession.
At the end of the turnaround, the Benetton family will be diluted in the capital of Aspi to around 10%. The agreement then provides for the rewriting of the concession including a lowering of motorway tolls.
Atlantia today controls Aspi with 88% of the capital and is in turn controlled with just over 30% by Edizione Holding, the financial safe of the Benetton family. The rest is on the market. The mechanism of the dilution of the share of capital held by the Benettons will take place gradually: in addition to the capital increase of Aspi, the sale of shares to investment funds is envisaged - the names of Macquarie and Blackstone have been mentioned - which will allow Atlantia to collect, according to initial estimates, between 2 and 2,64 billion. However, the Benetton family will not be able to collect money in the form of an extraordinary dividend because the agreement signed on Thursday with the government expressly forbids it. For how long and how? At the moment no one can tell.
The last piece will be the quotation on the Stock Exchange. It should take place through the demerger of Aspi from Atlantia at the beginning of 2021. It means that Atlantia will distribute its shares in Autostrade to all shareholders (therefore including the Benettons) and will thus be automatically listed on the Stock Exchange where it will return to the list after leaving it in 2013 .
At that point, approximately 10% of Autostrade will remain with Edizione Holding and will be able to choose what to do with it: whether to sell, collecting a value of around one billion (based on the current capitalization) or to stay, we'll see.
If these are the most reliable scenarios after the draft agreement reached between the government and ASPI at dawn on Thursday, there are however many variables and points still to be clarified. The times for a listing at the beginning of 2021 appear to be very tight, just as the question of the compensation value recognized to Aspi in the event of revocation of the concession remains to be clarified: the Milleproroghe 2019 lowered it from around 23 to 7 billion but only once upward revision of this indemnity could rebalance the debt (9,3 billion) with respect to assets - even after the increase from 3-4 billion - and allow the company to regain a rating investment grade with which to finance yourself on the market.
