The game on the highways enters the decisive phase. After the government approved on Saturday "subject to agreements" the Milleproroghe decree – which provides for the suspension of toll increases and the immediate intervention of Anas in the event of revocation of the concession – Autostrade per l'Italia immediately ran for cover. The board of directors has made it known that, if the executive continues along the path traced with the latest provision, the company will ask the state for compensation for the remaining part of the motorway concession, which expires in 2038. According to some estimates, the account would be 23-25 billion. The Benetton company would ask for this money by virtue of a provision of the agreement which provides for the possibility of terminating the contract in the face of a "substantial regulatory change". Change which in this case would be the novelty on Anas, considered by Aspi to be contrary to Community law and perhaps also to the Italian Constitution.
THE REPORT OF THE COURT OF AUDITORS
However, it is not said that the group has the right to compensation, because the State could justify any revocation with the negligent conduct of the concessionaire. A survey by the Court of Auditors delivered to the Government shortly before the launch of the Milleproroghe, writes La Stampa, highlights a management by the motorway concessionaires characterized by low investments, little maintenance, high profits and disloyalty in relations with the State to the detriment of citizens .
THE SPLIT IN THE MAJORITY
However, the majority is by no means united on the next moves. At the moment, the only certainty is that the revocation of the concession – if it comes – will require an ad hoc provision, almost certainly a decree law. It is too important a provision to think of expediting it with an amendment to the Milleproroghe. This was explained by the Minister of Transport, Paola De Micheli, specifying that the final decision of the government will arrive by January and defining the letter from Autostrade as "unacceptable".
The Democratic Party is optimistic, while Italia Viva is against it. According to Luigi Di Maio, however, in the end the executive "will be united: starting the process for the revocation of the concessions is a battle of civilization after the collapse of the Morandi bridge. Those who oppose it do not want the good of the country".
OTHER RISKS IN THE EVENT OF WITHDRAWAL OF THE CONCESSION
But the matter is not that simple. In addition to the request for compensation and the fate of the 7 employees of Autostrade per l'Italia, problematic to say the least in the event of revocation of the concession, it must be considered that the cancellation of the contract would also lead to the suspension of maintenance work, for which Aspi has already allocated 10,5 billion euros.
Not to mention the financial implications. Once deprived of the concession, Autostrade per l'Italia would find itself exposed to the banks without the guarantee of the revenue guaranteed by the motorway tolls. At that point, in all likelihood, the group's share on the Stock Exchange would collapse, damaging not only the Benetton family, but also all the operators who bought Aspi shares as a long-term investment (relying on the motorway concession). Among these are Allianz and the Chinese Silk Road fund, as well as Italian and foreign pension funds. An outcome of this type therefore risks reducing the credibility of our country, discouraging international investors from aiming for Italy.
