The Chinese locomotive pulls at sustained speed and this further postpones the long-awaited revolution of global mobility, understood above all as new sources of power. In a quarter of a century, the planet's roads will host about 1,7 billion motor vehicles - summarizes the annual report of the Unione Petrolifera -, or about double the number on the road today. Merit (fault?) Above all of the East, China and India in the lead, called to give mobility to their unleashed industrial, commercial and social development. More than half of the vehicles traveling on the total of the five continents will move in non-OECD countries, but Asia is undoubtedly the area that will record the greatest increase.
However, not an increase in quality, if we look at the hypothesis, at the hope of increasingly marrying mobility with less polluting power resources. According to the oil union report, in 2035 oil will still satisfy 90% of the demand for mobility. This despite the strong technological progress already underway, including that of the electric car which, however, will not be enough to satisfy the need for mobility on the world market. According to the president of the UP, Pasquale De Vita, even in that distant date the contribution of alternative foods will have marked a strong increase, but its absolute value will remain very limited. Biofuels will also cover 2-4% of total world demand.
These are estimates by the oil industry, therefore with all the interest in reducing the extent of the proliferation of the means no oil. But the figure rests on a certainty: oil is on the rise, globally, both in terms of demand and production, and this is made possible precisely by the strong increase in motorization in emerging countries. These data are enough to understand that the era of fossil fuels cannot be considered to be over. Already in 2020, sales in non-OECD markets will exceed those of OECD countries, thus motivating trade and supply flows and dynamics.
In Europe, for example, the refining sector is in a severe crisis. in Italy, also throughout Europe with the inevitable consequences for employment levels. Out of the 98 plants active in Europe in 2009, about thirty recorded negative data, including closures, changes in ownership, bankruptcies and (to date) unsuccessful sales. This is due to a drop of more than 30% in European refining capacity. This decline is faced by the progress of extra-European capacity: a single refinery in India, that of Reliance, is enough to cover over two-thirds of Italian consumption.
But the macro-data connected to this trend opens up new questions on the sources of clean mobility and related strategies. Between the progress of distant countries and a certain laziness of the customer (just remember that 50% of Italian motorists snub self-service vending machines, despite the sometimes considerable savings they allow), the energy breakthrough of the car is yet to come . The slowness of the industry in providing precise answers to the weak points of the future eco-sustainable system also weighs: to date, there is still no electric motor car capable of easily exceeding the 200 km range. Not to mention the cumbersome nature of the systems and reload times, the substantial slowness with which the social machine reacts… If these problems weren't enough, the oil system continues undaunted to grind profits that other industries dream of, and with a commercial strength of this level it will always be very difficult to get him to accept the idea of retreat.
