Nothing will be as before in the four-wheeled world after 2020, a year as cursed for sales as prodigal of innovations for the future: lithium batteries, self-driving cars and, finally, hydrogen what fuel of the future. A sort of tsunami that has already hit the way of producing the car but which promises to overwhelm any past reference in terms of mobility.
The latest news in chronological order is sensational: Apple who appeared to have given up on competing in the industry six years ago, has announced that he has taken up again the Titan project, or the creation of a self-driving vehicle equipped with an innovative, indeed "revolutionary" battery. Details are lacking but the announcement was accepted on the Stock Exchange with a 3% increase in the Apple, such is the expectation for the return of the i-Car to the scene.
It seems obvious that this time Apple, after acknowledging in its first attempt that it is not easy to land from scratch in the car world, will rely on a partner like Waymo, the mobility company of Google leaning on the Chrysler Pacifica. But this time the spirit of the initiative will be very different from that of 2014: it is a question of eroding what is announced as the unchallenged hegemony of Tesla before it's too late, given that Elon Musk proposes to control a good third of the world electric car market in five years.
He, the scientist-entrepreneur, doesn't worry too much about either the new or the old competition. “I think – he said recently – that many manufacturers will be able to develop electric cars capable of competing also in the autonomous driving segment. But we will be the best in manufacturing, the most reliable but also the most competitive in the price/performance ratio”. Already today, according to Barrons', Tesla has very little to learn from the Apple in terms of value creation, which also seemed to be the exclusive preserve of Silicon Valley electronics: Tesla shares are worth 13 times 2020 revenue, those of Apple only 3. A year ago the roles were reversed.
But it is by no means certain that leadership is a game between Americans. Indeed, the Asians, thanks to the advantage accumulated in the heats, boast the best numbers. And Europe, following Germany and France, is now making its mark. At this point, it is striking that this extremely expensive match is being played in such a difficult moment, indeed the most difficult.
Analyzing market trends, it is noted that the car paid in 2020 together with the aeronautical industry, the highest price for the pandemic. According to the latest IHS estimates, over the last twelve months global sales have not exceeded the level of 76 million cars, a significant decrease (-16,3%) compared to last year, in free fall compared to 2017 , the year of records when sales reached the peak of 94,3 million pieces, almost 20 million more, demonstrating that, beyond the pandemic, the traditional model of mobility is showing signs of wear.
Even if it is difficult to draw a general law in a situation that is so complicated. In China, where it all began in Wuhan, in the heart of the auto industry, the assembly lines have been working at full speed since late spring, limiting the drop in production to 5%. The American market was also in the red – 16%, better than in 2008/09, when the drop was double. And Europe? Minus 25% on average, but Italy did worse in the first eleven months: -29%. And it is not difficult to predict that next year there will not be a return to the levels of the good years. But the atmosphere is not depressed. For several reasons, starting from the fact that this time the sector was not caught unprepared, at least from a financial point of view. But, above all, the electric shock arrived, sales practically doubled: over one million cars in the first eleven months against 545 in 2019.
Almost a surprise for the sector already resigned to a false start. On the contrary Tesla, Zoe, Peugeot 208 awaiting the take-off of the 500E have not betrayed expectations especially on those markets, such as France and Germany, which have enjoyed incentives limited to electricity. A choice that governments (including Italy, perhaps) will have to pursue in the coming years while waiting for the cost of batteries to decrease, starting with lithium ones. Once again it is Elon Musk who, like Henry Ford, has promised a Tesla for 25 dollars, who dictates the timing of the permanent revolution. Because the introduction of hydrogen is already upon us, in which, among other things, CNH and Peugeot are already involved. In short, innovation is knocking at the door in the context of the green revolution. And we will hear about it soon, as early as next year.
