Italian industry is holding up: the lowest point of the slowdown has been passed, there are signs of recovery thanks to fewer but stronger companies and exports that are now close to 50%, despite the alarm about the drop in investments. This is supported by the 95th Report on industrial sectors, presented by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia in Milan and which invites Italy to restart above all from the automotive sector: “The electric car will be one of the drivers of the recovery of the European and global economy between now and 2023, but Italy is still far behind”, he explains Gregorio De Felice, chief economist of the first Italian bank. In fact, if consumption also holds in 2019, the real challenge is that of relaunching investments, which on a general level suffered a sudden setback after reaching "brilliant but insufficient" levels in the previous legislature: in the period 2015-17 , thanks to the incentives, had risen by 6-7% per year.
In 2019, on the other hand, the figure is currently -3%, with a confidence index for the first time since 2014 that is negative, and according to the forecasts of Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia investments will grow in 2019 by only 1,4%, then 2% in 2020 and 1,8% in 2021: “Putting together the estimates for the three-year period – argued De Felice – we reach an overall +5,6%, which would increase the already very high gap with the level of investments by German industry. Investing is needed above all for two reasons: to expand the production base, given that today we have stronger companies but they are 15% less than at the beginning of the crisis, and increase productivity, investing not only in disruptive sectors, such as digital, but also in the new technologies of traditional sectors, such as the automotive sector”.
Therefore, it is above all investments in the auto sector that are slacking off, which in Italy is worth, considering related industries, 330 billion and 1,2 million jobs, but which in 2019 for now registers - together with mechanics, metallurgy and household appliances – a drop in turnover of more than 1%, against a static overall industrial turnover saved by less cyclical sectors such as consumer goods, food and pharmaceuticals. Despite having recorded a drop in registrations on the domestic market, Italy nonetheless boasts an encouraging position in exports, especially of components, whose export share is worth 65%, higher than the average of the manufacturing sector (48%).
But the challenge to which the analysis by Intesa and Prometeia refers when it speaks of investments in the car is ineluctably that of electrification and, consequently, of self-driving cars. A revolution that Italy and Europe have so far undergone, on the initiative of China which has been planning everything for a long time and is engulfing the market, after having got its hands on African mineral resources (especially rare earths) which today make it practically the only battery producer in the world.
A challenge that can no longer be postponed, which it will bring car manufacturers to invest a good 2023 billion euros between now and 40 only for the reconversion, but that Italy would not seem ready to accept yet, given that it is currently at the rear of the electric car market. According to Acea data from 2018, Italy is barely in the top 20 European countries by incidence of electricity on total registrations: 0,5%, like Latvia, Romania and Bulgaria, worse than Spain, Slovenia, Hungary and Ireland , but above all by 2% in France and Germany, by 3,4% for example in Portugal and by 49% in Norway as leaders. Of the total registrations of electric or hybrid cars in Europe (384.052 in total in 2018), again according to Acea data, Italy accounts for only 2%, less than 3% for Spain and Belgium and 19% for Norway, 18% in Germany and 12% in France.
Things are not better globally, given that Europe produces a quarter of the world's electric vehicles (China over a third) but still registers 25%, starting however from 39% in 2007, with China which in the same period tripled from 12 to 35%. Not to mention the issue of recharging points, which are decisive for the penetration of electric cars: in Italy there are just 3.824, i.e. 13 every 1.000 square km, an area not much smaller than that of the entire metropolitan city of Naples. In Holland, the European leader, there are almost 40.000, one for each square kilometre, and in France and Germany there are 25.000 and 28.000 respectively.
However, there is reason for optimism: if it is true that as regards customer payment times, Italy is only better than Turkey and Greece (in Germany it is less than 30 days, in Italy more than 80), it is also verified that the Italian SME fabric is confirmed to be more solid than the German and French one. In the three-year period 2014-17, despite many bankruptcies, the small and medium-sized enterprises that survived the harsh selection saw their turnover grow by an average of 20%, against the 5-10% of those of the first two continental economies.
