Just a year ago, the three rounds of presidential elections in Austria had generated suspense in Europe, given the concrete chances of success of the far-right FPÖ candidate Norbert Hofer (later defeated by independent Green Alexander van der Bellen). No less attention should be paid to the legislative elections of Sunday 15 October, so far eclipsed by the German elections of 24 September last.
In both German-speaking countries, polls in recent months have predicted the victory of the Christian Democrat candidate by a large margin, while leaving the Koalitionsfrage, the choice of allies, open. With one significant difference. In Germany, the AfD, while triumphant because it enters the Bundestag and is the third federal party, stops at 12,6% and has no chance of being part of a government majority. In Austria, however, the FPÖ has always been one of the big three parties, still controls about a quarter of the electorate and has a good chance of entering the control room.
The child prodigy of the Övp
At the end of 2016 and again in the first months of this year, this prospect was somewhat more worrying: the FPÖ was clearly leading the polls and it was thought that its leader Heinz-Christian Strache could claim the chancellery, proposing the day after the elections originally scheduled in 2018 an alliance to one of the two traditional governing parties, currently jointly in power in a now-worn grand alliance.
These balances of power were drastically reversed by the entry into the field of thirty-year-old Sebastian Kurz. A year ago, the popular party Övp was around 19-20% in the polls; last spring it had jumped to over 30%, thanks to the wave of renewal and dynamism unleashed by the ambitious and photogenic foreign minister who in the meantime had come to the conservative leadership: a political step that hastened the end of the grand coalition between popular and social democrats, with the calling of early elections in the autumn. Currently, his party seems to be aiming for at least a third of the votes, with a gap of about 10% compared to both the Social Democrats of Chancellor Christian Kern's SPö and Strache's FPÖ.
More than the details of the electoral results that will be announced on 16 October, it will be interesting to see the consequences that the leaders of the main parties will draw from them, and in the first place the winner (barring surprises that are unthinkable today) Kurz, for the purposes of forming the next coalition .
possible coalitions
The two options capable of ensuring a comfortable majority (about 55-60%) are a re-edition of the current Große Koalition, but with reversed roles, i.e. led by the Christian Democrats, as hitherto in Germany, or a centre-right alliance between Kurz and Strache, analogous to that between the then chancellor of the Övp Wolfgang Schüssel and the extreme right of Jörg Haider, who in 2000 scandalized Europe and pushed the EU to decree political sanctions against Austria.
The first option would obviously be the most reassuring one for the European partners, but it has been repeatedly declared unusable by those directly involved because it was too worn out by the divergences of recent years. Will they change their minds after the election? The Christian Democrats might perhaps find a return to the Große Koalition more acceptable, now having the right to be at the helm, and with an authoritative (and authoritarian) helmsman. But it must also be said that many of them (over half, including Kurz himself, unlike his predecessor in the office of vice-chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner) have no prejudices against an organic collaboration with Strache's FPÖ, while they see in the Social Democrats a obstacle to the reforms necessary to give breath to the Austrian economy.
The position of the centre-left will be more difficult: as junior partners in a new coalition of broad understandings, they risk having to support conservative political choices; on the other hand, by voluntarily passing to the opposition they would assume the responsibility of paving the way for Strache's entry into the government. Kern has declared himself unwilling to continue collaborating with the Christian Democrats, except as a senior partner, which is by now extremely unlikely. In other words, if he is no longer head of government, he doesn't even want to be vice-chancellor; but the current defense minister, Hans Peter Doskozil, is willing to do so.
The rehabilitation of the far right
Theoretically, a left-right coalition (Spö-Fpö) that sends the Christian Democrat winner to the opposition cannot even be ruled out. The Vranitsky doctrine, named after the chancellor who had enunciated it thirty years ago, excluded it: but the conventio ad excludendum vis-à-vis the Fpö was recently repealed. The majority of the Socialist Party (including Kern) is still against it; on the other hand, a minority led by the president of Burgenland Hans Niessl is in favour, who already governs in the small eastern region with this composition, also tested in some other Länder. At the moment, however, this solution does not seem to have the numbers at the national level.
A fourth hypothesis, which could emerge in the event of an avalanche victory bringing Sebastian Kurz's party to 36-38%, is that of a coalition with minor parties (similar to the "Jamaica" formula now being pursued by Angela Merkel in Berlin with Liberals and Greens) or a minority government with their occasional support. A precarious solution, the latter, but congenial to a young decision-making leader, not inclined to negotiate compromises.
Overall, therefore, the electoral results are largely predictable (Kurz's victory by a large margin), except for the head-to-head between socialists and the extreme right. The question of the coalition is completely open, but with good chances for Strache to enter the government.
