An alarm signal relating to the Italian economic activity comes from the data relating to missed payments in the first quarter of 2012 which, compared to the same period last year, have grown on the Italian market of 38% in frequency (average number of missed payments) and del 19% in severity (average amount of missed payments).
However, the most worrying figure concerns the missed payments relating to exports. In fact, the data relating to the domestic market show an increase on an annual basis, but are in line with the last quarter of 2011; while the trend on international markets appears as new by registering increases of 18% in frequency and 23% in severity.
By disaggregating the data on a sectoral and geographical basis, it is possible to evaluate which sectors are most suffering and what are the causes.
As far as the internal market is concerned, there are two variables to be taken into consideration in order to analyze the data: the reduction of private consumption, direct effect of the austerity manoeuvres; And the increase in energy prices, a fundamental variable for energy-intensive sectors.
The decline in consumption weighs on sectors such as the footwear andagri-food which showed significant increases both in frequency (74% and 47% respectively) and in severity (100% and 84% respectively). The same dynamics can be found in other sectors, this time due to the increase in energy prices, such as the paper and steel industries.
Sectors with high added value such as mechanics and energy are starting to show signs of tension, risking infecting the entire supply chains set up downstream of these sectors.
I international markets the only real driving force, or rather a parachute, for the Italian economy they are starting to show signs of sagging precisely in the leading sectors of Italian exports. In the agri-food sector missed payments increase by 23% in frequency and 40% in severity, in mechanics a limited increase in attendance (+3%) is counterbalanced by a decisive increase in the average amounts with +60%, concluding with the chemical sector which records the worst performance ever with an increase of 67% in the number of missed payments and 100% in the average value.
Of course, these data must be read by crossing productive sectors and target markets. In fact, the difficulties of countries such as Spain, Greece and Portugal together with the slowdown in the growth of BRICS, have a negative impact on Italian exports.
The territorial distribution of non-payments perfectly reflects the dualism of the Italian economy with a generalized suffering for the central-southern regions mainly due to liquidity problems. However, looking at the relative values, they remain within the centre-south differences between Regions which show constant increases in number and value of non-payments (Sicily or Molise which recorded a +100% in frequency and severity) and others that improve significantly, especially in relation to the average amounts of non-performing loans (Basilicata - 87%, Lazio -40% and Puglia -24%)
In the North the worst performances, taking into account both relative and absolute values, were recorded in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna. The growth trend in the number of missed payments is sustained and generalized for all northern regions; the only exception is Veneto where the increase in attendance is only 5% accompanied by a 1% reduction in average amounts.
This analysis is based on the "Report on Non-Payments” redacted Euler Hermes Italy on a sample of 450.000 companies. In presenting the Report, Michael Pignotti – Head of the Mediterranean Countries, Africa & Middle East Region of Euler Hermes and Country Manager of Euler Hermes Italy – underlined the need on the part of “Italian companies to remain attached to the train of growth of the BRICS and the growing economies of the Med Area which the Turkey and some North African countries, which after a year of turmoil, will be ready to restart towards a more solid reconstruction of the main economic indicators".
