If not now, when? It seems paradoxical, but the economy of the Bel Paese closes the horrible year of the pandemic with a note of hope which rests, among other things, on the 209 billion incoming with the funds of the Next Generation Fund which add up to a favorable picture on the financial markets (rates close to zero, inflation for now far away) and a more relaxed geopolitical situation in which a long-range treaty between the European Union and China is looming which could do a lot good for the agri-food exports of the Bel Paese.
To these traditional factors is added the historical occasion of the Recovery Fund of which there has been much talk in the political news regarding control rooms, much less on the merits. Yet the occasion is really tempting. Thanks to European funds, the 2021 looks like a year in which fiscal policies will be the real protagonists leaving monetary policies, always fundamental, in a more supporting role. As hasn't happened for many (too many years) it will be possible to start long-term structural interventions involving public and private funds, as the Spanish cousins promise to do.
The Financial Times has devoted a long report to projects that Iberdrola, Telefonica and Seat they intend to finance with the money from the Recovery Fund (140 billion for Madrid). Here, the issue, so far hidden by political controversy, is even more important, given the delays and controversies. Especially on the highway front.
ATLANTIA, THE ITALIAN ROPE SHOWS UP.
Christmas has not brought peace to the Atlantia front. On the front of the investigations for the collapse of the Morandi bridge, the expert report of the Genoa Public Prosecutor's Office revealed i missed checks and maintenance interventions not carried out correctly which did not make it possible to identify the corrosion of the cables and thus avoid the collapse. As for the negotiation for the sale of Autostrade per l'Italia to the consortium headed by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti which includes Blackstone and the Australian Macquarie, the novelty lies in the presentation of a non-binding letter of offer for an investment in Autostrade per l'Italia sent to the subsidiary of the Benetton group.
In reality it is only an update of the offer already presented which takes into account the "results of the due diligence in progress, the related impact on the economic evaluation and the identification of the process and the timing for the presentation of a binding offer".
The document shows that the position of the parts, instead of getting closer, moves away. The preliminary assessment of 100% of Aspi in a range of 8,5-9,5 billion had seen the board of the holding company reject the proposal to the sender, underlining how it was not adequate. Now the orientation in CDP, after having started the due diligence on the complex infrastructure and on the accounts which will not finish before the end of January, is even more cautious: the Cassa would be oriented to remain in the lower part of the range with the request for more guarantees solid compared to the previous ones, considering the fact that the capex could be significantly higher than expected, a lot depends on the evaluation of the maintenance carried out on the network over the years.
The negotiation covers the whole participation of Aspi. The buyer would be the consortium in which Cdp Equity accounts for 51%, while the two international partners cover the remaining 49% of the share. But CDP is open to creating one Italian consortium with entities such as investment funds and pension funds as well as Intesa San Paolo. The stock trades at around 14,5 euros for a valuation of around 7,5 billion, less than the valuation of Fidentiis analysts. But a lot depends on the incidence of legal fees.
SINGLE NETWORK: TIM AND CDP CLOSER TO THE GOAL. BUT THERE IS THE EU
After the start of the procedure for the transfer to the Macquarie fund of a stake between 40 and 50% of Open Fiber, the road that should lead - Brussels permitting - to the single network is still busy. The operation Open Fiber, rather complex, should close by June 2021 and provides for Enel the possibility of collecting up to 2,65 billion, and the prospect of a further cash adjustment in the event that the company collects a maxi compensation from Telecom Italia, or an important return on investment thanks to the creation of the single network (up to 500 million euros).
At the end of August, Tim's board of directors had meanwhile given the green light to the Memorandum of Understanding with the CDP and approved the creation of FiberCop, the company that takes care of the last mile of the network, in which Fastweb holds 4,5%. At the same time, the bank's board of directors had given the go-ahead for the creation, together with Tim, of the single national network company "to accelerate the development of single national network” (AccessCo).
The situation on the network front was thus unblocked, with Enel's board of directors agreeing to sell its 50% of the Open Fiber company, presumably 40% to the Australian fund Macquaire and 10% to Cassa depositi e prestiti. But one obstacle remains: Vivendi's role as shareholder in Tim and the position of Brussels, given that for the Commission a vertically integrated network with the main Italian telecommunications operator risks violating the principle ofneutral infrastructure usable by all operators.
MEDIASET: BOLLORE' SCORE A GOAL IN THE CESARINI AREA
The match on the single network thus intersects with the infinite war for the control of Mediaset. The story, which began in the spring of 2016 with an agreement because Vivendi bought Mediaset Premium, had quickly turned into a clash of which we see some consequences today. First of all, the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office has just closed the investigation into the stock market moves of that year, accusing Vincent Bolloré and Arnaud de Puyfontaine, respectively the first shareholder and chairman of Vivendi, of market manipulation ed obstacle to supervisory activity, for surreptitiously attempting a takeover of Mediaset.
Furthermore, in September of this year, Vivendi had obtained a ruling in its favor from the European Court of Justice which essentially established how the Gasparri law was contrary to European law and did not safeguard the pluralism of information. The Court's decision paves the way a a reinstatement of Vivendi's full voting rights, which in 2017 had seen two-thirds of its voting rights in a trust sterilized by Agcom and which from that moment can only express itself in Mediaset meetings with 9,9% of the capital.
The rapid Italian response to the point scored by the French in Europe was a amendment to the budget law, presented by the Giallorossi majority, which establishes that in cases such as that of the entry of the French into Mediaset, it is up to Agcom to assess whether acquisitions in Italy – including those of EU entities – could jeopardize the information pluralism.
The response from Vivendi was immediate, who immediately alerted the EU Commission: Brussels doesn't like the Italian standard because they see it as an obstacle to the freedom of establishment of companies and they let it be known immediately, while Rome defends its choice. Net of other cases that are piled up in the Italian courts between Mediaset and Vivendi, the question is this and it appears to have reached a stalemate. On the one hand, Vivendi, with Bolloré's casual raids, appears destined to end up in the corner and also have to face a criminal trial; on the other hand, the Italian legal ploy to prevent the French from getting their hands on Mediaset does not seem destined to obtain great acclaim in Europe. But not even at Tar del Lazio which on December 23 decided to unfreeze the entire participation by Vivendi nel Biscione. So now the French could regain possession of all the voting rights, equal to about 30% of the Mediaset capital.
