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Atlantia takes time on Alitalia, the spread goes up

The unresolved Alitalia crisis adds to the many loose cannons that torment the country and which are causing the spread to rise again – The Hong Kong drama remains looming over the US-China tariff negotiations

Atlantia takes time on Alitalia, the spread goes up

Mixed start to the financial day in Asia, in the wake of the slowdown on Wall Street, held back by large-scale distribution stocks and the plunge in oil, against an increase in inventories and a drop in demand.

Tokyo's Nikkei loses 0,7%. The Japanese customs office announced that exports fell by 9,2% in October, the sharpest contraction in the last three years. Trade with South Korea, a historical partner with which the wounds of the past have recently reopened, has decreased. The goods shipped to the United States have collapsed in terms of volume: -11%. The drop in imports from the same country was even heavier: -17%.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng is down by 0,7%, the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists by 0,5%, the Seoul Kospi by 1,2%.

The dollar yen is on its third day of decline, at 108,5. The dollar-yuan exchange rate returned to the levels of two weeks ago at 7,03. The US currency appreciates against most of its emerging counterparts, against the Korean won and the Indonesian rupee.

US CONGRESS VOTES ON HONG KONG, CHINA REACTS

Some cracks risk cracking the otherwise solid foundations of the financial markets. Above all, the Hong Kong drama looms over the negotiations between the US and China. Paradoxically, the political crisis explodes just when the situation returns to normal after a harsh repression. A hundred diehards remain inside the city's Polytechnic, the others have escaped or been arrested.

Meanwhile, Alibaba announces early closing of securities offering, sold like hot cakes, confirming that the protest has not affected the appeal of the financial centre.

But yesterday the US Congress voted a resolution in support of the protest, calling for checks on compliance with the status of the former British colony. Beijing did not take it well: if the document were to be converted into law, it was announced, retaliation would come, it was not clarified what kind. And an article in a newspaper close to the top of the party warns Trump that "at this rate the trade agreement will be signed by his daughter Ivanka in a few years".

FREEZING ON LARGE US DISTRIBUTION: KOHL'S -19,5%

Tensions on tariffs held back the US markets yesterday: Dow Jones -0,36%, S&P 500 -0,06. Only the Nasdaq rises: +0,24%.

The session was conditioned by the sharp slowdown in large-scale retail shares, after the disappointing accounts. Home Depot, a home and building department store company, fell 5,4% after the release of its quarterly results. Earnings per share came in at $2,53, just above expectations. However, the company has cut, for the second time, its turnover estimates for the current year.

Kohl's did worse, plummeting by 19,5%. The chain of stores reported quarterly results with earnings per share of $0,74, below expectations of $0,86, and cut its estimates on sales for the current year.

OIL WEAK, BUT THE ARAMCO IPO FLYING

Setback yesterday for oil: -2,5%, today traded at 60,81 dollars a barrel. The unexpected increase in inventories weighs heavily, but also the rumors, relaunched by Reuters, that Russia does not seem willing to proceed with further cuts in supply.

Copious sales on oil yesterday in Piazza Affari: Saipem -1,33%, Eni - 0,99%. Maire Tecnimont is saved, up 1,54%.

Bloomberg reports that it is doing very well the placement of Saudi Aramco shares: the banks in charge of the sale would arrive within three days to close the collection of reservations.

Gold climbed for the third consecutive day to 1.474 dollars an ounce, before the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve.

LAGARDE TOWARDS THE FIRST TEST WITH THE DIRECTORY

The slowdown on Wall Street yesterday caused a sharp change of direction in European stock markets, which were positive in the first part of the session, when the Stoxx 600 index reached its highest level since 2015, retreating towards the end. Futures suggest a mixed start to today's session.

On the ECB front, expectations are growing for Christine Lagarde's debut on the Board, in comparison with the requests of the 19 members of the directorate. Several bankers, we read in the Financial Times, are asking for more shared governance compared to Mario Draghi's season, especially with regards to rate decisions.  

BUSINESS PLACE -0,57%, THE SPREAD IS INCREASING

The negative trend in the price lists also affected Piazza Affari: -0,57% to 23.329 points.

The judgment on the Italian maneuver by the European Commission should arrive today (Juncker's last act before handing over the scepter). All this should be resolved in a declaration of "risk of significant deviation" from the guidelines, a sort of warning, which for the moment does not constitute a rejection of the measure, but only a condition of special observation.

Frankfurt (+0,09%) remains in positive territory, but far from the highs of the morning. The car minirally has vanished. Volkswagen, already up 2,5%, retraces to +0,75%.

The other markets are also holding back: Paris -0,35%, Madrid -0,01%. London's expansion also faded: up 1,5% in the morning, it closed at +0,2%.

The slowdown in the stock market is also reflected on the bond front, especially the Italian ones. The BTPs suffer: the 1,27-year bond goes up to 5% (+160 basis points). The spread goes up to XNUMX points.

But there is no shortage of optimists. According to Natwest Markets analysts, the Italian debt market will weather short-term political uncertainty and the spread between Italian and German 100-year bonds could narrow to XNUMX basis points next year.

Seat with two sides also for Piazza Affari. A first part of the day with indices in sharp rise was followed by a second part where sales prevailed. And Wall Street's sagging start has strengthened the earnings trend.

Spotlights turned on this morning on Atlantia after yesterday's board of directors took more time on Alitalia. After a long meeting, the company issued a press release in which it informed that "the conditions necessary for the company to join the Consortium aimed at presenting a possible binding offer on Alitalia have not yet been fulfilled". The latest deadline set by the government is November 21st.

KEEPS YOUR SAVINGS MANAGED, BEWARE OF BPER

Asset management securities were saved from sales: Azimut +1,3%, Banca Mediolanum +2,7%.

Among the banks, Unicredit +0,3%; Morgan Stanley in a report estimated a target of 14,8 euros. Weak Intesa, down by 0,11%.

Well tuned by Bper (+2,9%), where expectations for M&A operations continue to play. Unipol (-0,19%), a shareholder of Bper with 20%, will support the bank when the opportunity arises to carry out a major consolidation operation in the sector, CEO Carlo Cimbri said yesterday.

In the insurance sector, Generali sold, down by 1,84%.

The sector of regulated assets was bad, such as Snam (-1,51%), Terna (-1,93%) and Italgas (-1,27%).

STILL PURCHASING ON TIM, PIRELLI HOLDS BACK

Tim +1,3%, in contrast with the weak trend of the telecommunications sector in Europe. We look at the operation on the net, but in the absence of indications on the methods, the market remains at the window and limits itself to trading.

Among industrialists, Pirelli slows down (-0,8%) after the sales data from Michelin: in October, the trend is even more negative than expected.

Fiat-Chrysler -0,3%. Car registrations in the European Union and EFTA countries grew by 8,6% to 1,21 million cars in October. The Fiat-Chrysler group recorded registrations up 2,5% to just under 68.000 cars.

INWIT, TOWARDS THE MERGER WITH VODAFONE TOWERS

Inwit -0,5%. The board of directors approved the draft merger with Vodafone Towers, convening the shareholders' meeting for 19 December. The shareholders' meeting will also propose, subject to the approval of the merger, the distribution of an extraordinary dividend of 0,5936 euro per share.

Ideas on Moncler (+0,9%) and Mondadori (+1%), on which Mediobanca Securities raised the target price to 2,35 euros, confirming the outperform recommendation.

Esprinet does well (+5,55%): Banca Imi has increased the target price to 6,5 euros.

Positive debut at the Aim of UCapital 24 (+0,55%), the financial social media.

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