After the initial shock, the markets have absorbed the failure of the Doha summit on production quotas without damage. Crude oil prices rallied during the day, also thanks to the possibility of an agreement in June for which Russia is working. Prices were mainly driven by the strike by workers in the sector in Kuwait, which reduced the country's production by 60%.
In the end, the Brent index, down 5% in the morning, limited the loss to 0,42% at 42,92 dollars a barrel; Wti -1,32% to 39,78 dollars a barrel. Quite a few energy stocks closed higher against expectations. Chevron closes the session with a leap of 1,51%. The energy index rises by 1,6%.
Italian oil stocks also defended themselves. Eni recorded a loss of only 0,2% at the end of the day. Spectacular leap by Saipem: +4,8% to 0,3670 euro. Yet yesterday broker Raymond James announced that he had resumed hedging with an Underperform rating and a target price of €0,30.
TOKYO REVITALIZED, HONG KONG ADVANCES
The stability of crude oil favored the rise of the Stock Exchanges. Leading the race is Asia, the hardest hit yesterday morning by the initial drop in oil. Tokyo (+3,4%) fully recovered the losses, also the result of the shock caused by the earthquake that hit the island of Kyushu. Hong Kong rises by 0,7%, more cautious Shanghai (-0,2%) and Shenzhen (-0,4%). The Chinese authorities have announced an imminent tightening on technology stocks smacking of a bubble. Quotations are 20% higher than Japanese stocks in the sector.
The Seoul Stock Exchange was almost unchanged: the Korean central bank left rates unchanged despite the cut in forecasts for 2016 GDP (to 2,8 from the previous 3%). The won advanced by 0,66%, a slight slide for the yen, which is still close to the highs against the dollar. The euro was stable this morning: 1,1322 against the dollar awaiting the ECB's directorate on Thursday.
WALL STREET LIKES THE JUNGLE BOOK
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index (+0,6%) climbed back above 18.000 points: it hasn't happened since last July 21st. S&P +0,5%, Nasdaq +0,44%. The best blue chip was Walt Disney: +2,93% after the film "The Jungle Book" dominated the box office over the weekend, grossing $103,6 million. Hasbro is also flying (+5,8%), producer of toys related to Frozen and other recent Disney successes. Again in entertainment, a slump for Netflix (-12%), despite better-than-expected earnings.
Spotlight on corporate accounts: More than 80 companies will announce quarterly earnings this week, including Goldman Sachs (-0,3%). Yesterday Morgan Stanley released data: the net result is down sharply, the title is almost unchanged.
TURBULENT BRAZIL, BUENOS AIRES IS BACK IN FASHION
Turbulence reigns in Brazilian finance after the landslide victory in the Chamber of supporters of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff: 367 votes in favor against 137 against. The energetic intervention of the governor of the central bank, Alexandre Tombini blocked the increase in the real (-1,7% after +3,7% last week) but only thanks to strong purchases of reverse currency swaps. Profits on the San Paulo Stock Exchange (-0,75%): since the beginning of 2016, the Bovespa has achieved a 20% increase.
Meanwhile, Argentina's first bond issue was snapped up, finally readmitted to international markets after the quarantine imposed for the double default (2001 and 2015 for the refusal to repay creditors). The Macri government has launched a maxi issue of government bonds for 15 billion with interest up to 9%. International companies competed to secure these bonds with record yields: let's hope that Italian savers have a good memory.
PIAZZA AFFARI RECOVERS THE DIVIDEND EXCHANGE
Positive sign yesterday for the main European markets, despite the drop in crude oil and the collapse of the Asian indices after the earthquake in Japan. London gained 0,15%, Paris 0,26%. Frankfurt is livelier (+0,68%).
The Ftse Mib index also gained 0,68% in Milan to 18382 points, up from 17903 points in the morning, conditioned by the drop in crude oil and the detachment of dividends (0,3%): the positive effect of the Atlante fund amply compensated for the failure of the Doha agreement.
ATLANTE FREES UNICREDIT FROM THE POPVICENZA IPO. MPS-UBI, IT IS ABOUT
The rebound of the banking system, favored by the arrival of various good news, held the court. The increase in the sector index was only 0,1%, due to the coupon detachment of Banco Desio, Banco Popolare and Unicredit. In particular:
1) Memberships in the Atlante fund continue at a rapid pace. As of last night, 3,63 billion had been raised, of which 2 from Intesa (1 billion) and Unicredit (1 billion), plus 500 million each from the Foundations and the CDP. It is probable that the endowment could reach a maximum of 6 billion.
2) Atlante's baptism of fire is already a reality: Unicredit has signed an agreement with Quaestio Management sgr, on which the fund depends, for the subscription of the unopted share capital increase of Popolare Vicenza linked to the IPO. The Bank led by Federico Ghizzoni eliminates a heavy factor of uncertainty given the guarantee given for the operation. A week ago Mediobanca Securities had estimated a value of Popolare Vicenza between 1,1 and 1,6 billion, therefore less than the increase itself (1,75 billion, of which 1,5 guaranteed by Atlante).
3) Meanwhile, the Bank of Italy has urged the government to intervene "in a structural way" on credit recovery procedures to help banks dispose of non-performing loans. In fact, during a hearing in the Chamber Luigi Federico Signorini, deputy general manager of Via Nazionale, observed that the impact of non-performing loans on bank balance sheets "is becoming very important on the financial markets, even if it is given more importance than that that has". Banks recover bad loan collateral after seven to eight years on average, compared with about 15 months in Germany and Austria, according to industry data.
Above all, Monte Paschi (+8,24%) took advantage of the more positive moods, ahead of Ubi (-4,98%). Insistent rumors about a possible merger between the two institutes are making a comeback on the market. Carige is also in great evidence (+6,74%), awaiting the industrial plan to oppose the proposal of the private Apollo. Banco Popolare also stood out (+2,2%). The Bigs are more firm: Intesa +0,8% and Unicredit +0,1%, limiting themselves to recovering the coupon detachment.
UNIPOL RENUNCIES THE S&P RATING, FLYING FINECO
Asset management also performed well among financials: Banca Mediolanum +2,2%, Anima +5,6%, Fineco Bank +3,8%, despite the coupon detachment of 0,255 euro, equal to a yield of 3,60 %. Unipol is also making progress (+5,7%) on the wave of the forthcoming financial alliance with Bper (+2,6%). The Bologna-based company, in line with what has already been done by Generali (-0,23% in 2015), has asked Standard & Poor's to withdraw its ratings, both on the parent company and on the subsidiaries, including UnipolSai (+1,50%) , in open disagreement with the agency's evaluation methods, considered "irrational and penalizing for Italian companies".
CNH LEADS THE REVIVAL OF INDUSTRIALS
Positive bulletin for industrialists. The two Exor subsidiaries are advancing (+1,7%): Fiat Chrysler is on the rise after a weak start (minimum 6,695 euros) and ends with a gain of 3%, at 6,88 euros. Ford has announced that it is not interested in a merger with Fiat Chrysler. The answer comes after Sergio Marchionne, during the shareholders' meeting, had mentioned the American automaker among the brands with which to negotiate a possible merger after General Motors' denial.
CNH Industrial closes with an increase of 4,6%. It is one of the best blue chips in Piazza Affari while awaiting the Caterpillar accounts arriving this week. Bofa-Merrill Lynch promoted the rating to Buy from Neutral, setting a target price of 8 dollars (about 7 euros). According to Off Highway Research, sales of construction machinery, including bulldozers and excavators, are expected to soar globally in 2017 after five years of contraction.
Finmeccanica +1,84% after UBS raised its recommendation to Buy from the previous Neutral. Rumors on possible new orders from Australia and Qatar which also involve Fincantieri (+1,45%) also weigh heavily.
Prysmian rises by around one percentage point on the ex-dividend day (0,42 euro). The world's leading cable group sold 67% of Prysmian Baosheng Cable to the partner of the joint venture, the Chinese Baosheng group, for around 42 million euros. The goal is to redefine the growth strategy in China with the intention of moving independently in the utilities and high voltage systems sector.
On the other hand, Stm retraced (-1,75%), after Friday's leap on expectations of a change at the top.
VIVENDI REDUCES (0,2%) THE SHARE IN TELECOM
A minus also for Telecom Italia (-1,7%), but with very low volumes, just over half the 30-day average. Vivendi (the group's budget meeting will be held on Thursday at no less than Olympia, the temple of French song) sold 30 million shares of the Italian subsidiary, equal to 0,2%, on 24 March. The stake, a spokesman said, was sold "for a technical adjustment".
The media stocks did well despite the fact that in the morning UBS cut its rating on the stocks of the European sector from Overweight to Neutral: Rcs mediagroup +1,67%, Mediaset +1,29%.
