TODAY NEW YEAR'S EVE DUEL TO THE LAST BOT
2011 WITH THE PLUS SIGN ONLY IN WALL STREET
“Do or die”. Live or die. It sounds like the title of a 007 film. It's the slogan, dedicated to the euro in 2012, coined by an English trader interviewed by Reuters: Boris Schlossberg of Gft Forex. It is an expression that gives a sense of the mood of the markets: 2012, indeed the first quarter of 2012, will be decisive for the survival of the euro after a bitter battle that will be fought in terms of Italian government bonds, in the first appointment after the maxi loans from the ECB to the banking system. We start today, with the auction of Boots (9 billion) e ctz (1,5-2 billion), but the first real trial by fire will take place tomorrow, the appointment with the auction BTP e CctEu (9 billion).
The prime minister spoke of all this and more yesterday Mario Monti with Angela Merkel, according to what “Il Messaggero” reveals. There is certainly no shortage of reasons for concern. Italy, despite the severe maneuver on public finances, still suffers a spread of more than 500 points against the bund (509, last night); the 7,10-year yield fluctuates around 1%, an absolutely unsustainable level in the medium term. But yesterday's numbers must be read carefully: 30) these days we operate with a value date of December 2th; 20) there was no reason to buy Btp yesterday (trades were very modest) on the eve of auctions for around 3 billion; 411) it is by no means excluded that a part of the XNUMX billion euros parked at the ECB at Christmas (absolute record) could head towards the BTPs.
Something is indeed at work, under the surface, as evidenced by the slow adjustment of the yield curve. From this point of view, the recovery at the end of the session bodes well, which allowed the BTP to fall to 6,88%, or 497 bps of spread. Too little to fuel optimism. But, as the Washington Post writes: "The fate of the world economy is in Italy's hands". Meanwhile the Milan Stock Exchange it closed down 0,99%. Performance not moved for the other European stock markets: Paris and Frankfurt rose by 0,1%, Madrid -0,1%. London remained closed today. Same script on Wall Street: Dow Jones +0,18%, S&P 500 +0,19%, Nasdaq +0,48%.
The Italian crisis will not benefit the German economy in the long run. It is one of the most used arguments to support that, in the end, there will be a convergence between the various souls of the euro area. Maybe, hopefully, that's the way it will be. Today, however, in the eyes of public opinion the trends could not be more different: the peninsula is breathing an air of depression. In Germany, judging by the survey at the Chambers of Commerce, moods are very different: one out of three companies expects to make more investments next year, one out of five to make new hires. This optimism also explains the refusal of the German government to allocate resources to Eurobonds.
WEATHERBAG. BEWARE OF THE SEASONAL BOTS. The positive performance of Wall Street, combined with the holiday season, could neutralize the negative "sentiment" of Piazza Affari. But no one will dare to take strong initiatives on the price list before the outcome of the Bot auction. The positive outcome of the six-month bond offer will not automatically translate into new purchases: the most demanding match is Thursday the 29th.
BIPARTISAN AMERICA, SAFE PORT. God Bless America "the safe haven of savings in 2011," he stresses The Wall Street Journal. Even the Standard & Poor's 500, after yesterday's rise, is starting to close at par Nasdaq e Dow Jones 2011 with a gain, albeit modest: +0,6% compared to 2 January. No other list has succeeded within the G20. Thanks to the recovery, confirmed by the recovery of household confidence. I deserve even more the great escape from the euro which undoubtedly helped Corporate America, despite the weak leadership of Barack Obama. However, yesterday the president paid the Republicans a price to unblock government action. To complete the Federal Reserve team, Obama has called, alongside his assistant Jeremy Stein, the former undersecretary of George W. Bush, Jerome Powell. This is good news for markets: a bipartisan Fed, led by Republican Ben Bernanke, will avoid paralysis in a sensitive election year.
YEN, SUPERSTAR CURRENCY. Tokyo has tried more than once to curb the yen's rise, without much success. The Japanese currency closed the year up on all currencies, including the dollar (+4,1%). The news does not shake the Tokyo Stock Exchange from year-end apathy: theNikkei 225 index loses 0,1%. The decline in production by Sony and Honda weighs heavily, damaged by the non-arrival of components from Thailand, hit by the floods in November.
FONDIARIA COLLAPSES, UNICREDIT STAGGERS
The following banks weighed on the Italian list: Unicredit on the first day of trading after the split (10 old shares for 1 new one) it closed at 6,575 euros, down 4,7%. Understanding lost 2,3%, Banco Popolare -2,75% Pop.Emilia -3,5% Ubi -2,2% Pop.Milan -4,2% Mediobanca -4,8%. In Piazza Affari it ended in sharp decline Fondiaria-Sai -7,9%, after the board of directors approved a capital increase of 23 million euro on 750 December. The company will close 2011 with a loss of 925 million euros, against an expected loss of 138 million. The subsidiary Milan Insurance is down 1%. Premafin, the Ligresti holding which controls Fondiaria, fell by 11%. Among the blue chips, Impregilo stood out, rising by 2,6% after Fondiaria-Sai accepted the group's proposal gavio, to which it will sell its 33% of Igli, the holding company that controls 29,9% of Impregilo. Gavio thus rises to 66% of Igli (practically 20% of Impregilo), and will pay 3,6 euros each for the shares. Atlantia closed the session unchanged. The highway company Benetton he remains with Gavio as the only other shareholder in Igli, but has the option of exercising the option right and sharing the purchase of the share in Fondiaria-Sai with Gavio. According to a widespread hypothesis among analysts, Gavio and Atlantia could agree to proceed with a spin-off of Impregilo, with the Piedmontese manufacturer taking over the construction part, while the motorway company would receive the Impregilo concessions.
ELECTRIC PEACE SHOCKS IREN AND A2A
Another sharing deal was announced this morning: that of Edison, which will see the French EDF acquire the share of the Italian shareholders, among which they excel A2A, up 2,7%, e Iren +2,9%. Edf will buy Edison shares at 0,84 euros per share and today the title fell by 1,7% to 0,817 euros because the market was aiming for a higher price. Great satisfaction on the part of Graziano Tarantini and Giuliano Zuccoli, respectively president and CEO of A2A. "Through the integration between A2A and Edipower - reads a joint note - and the collaboration with the other Italian shareholders, the second operator in the electricity sector was born which, with approximately 10 thousand MW of installed capacity and an efficient production mix, is positioned among the leaders Europeans in the sector”, underline the two managers in a note. Positive Finmeccanica +4,1% and Mediaset +1,6%. Down Ferragamo -2,4%. Among the small caps, leap of TBS Group. The stock remained suspended for almost the entire session due to an excessive increase and in the final auction it marked a price of 1,245 euro, up by 38%. The Fondo Italiano di Investimento announced its intention to invest a total of 20 million euros in the company through a capital increase and the issue of a convertible bond. TBS is active in the field of services for the hospital sector. The board of directors of Seat Yellow Pages decided not to pay the December installment for repayment of senior debt principal and interest for a total of 55 million euro (35 million principal installment and 20 million interest). The company in technical default must complete the debt restructuring by January 16th, a step for which a broader consensus among the creditor banks is needed.
