The wait, actually not spasmodic, is about to end. The financial markets, starting from Piazza Affari, are preparing to test the Italian elections on Sunday which, among other things, will fall at the same time as the referendum of the German Social Democrats, the last obstacle for the confirmation of Angela Merkel.
In the last week, after a long phase of apathy, the atmosphere of the eve began to feel: the spread between the BTP and the Bund rose to its highest level in a month, around 140 (against a low around 120 at the beginning of February ). The stock market, the best in the Eurozone since the beginning of 2018, fell by 0,5% in the last week, against the half-point gain of the Eurostoxx 50 index.
In this context, the Treasury's end-of-month auctions take on a particular flavor: this morning the offer of 6 billion six-month BOTs is scheduled for an identical quantity maturing. Tomorrow it will be the turn of medium-long term securities: 3-4 billion in the new 5-year BTP, 1,75 billion in the 1,25-year and 1,75-2017 in Ccteu. It will be a demanding exam, also due to the concomitance with the offer of Spanish paper. On the eve of the opening of the polls, another highly anticipated macro appointment will arrive: the growth of the Italian GDP in 1,4, expected at +1,3%, an increase compared to the +XNUMX% contained in the accompanying note of the Def of last September.
Other data useful for photographing the Italian economy before the vote will arrive from Istat this week: in fact, the numbers on unemployment and the labor market are arriving, as well as the latest bulletin on inflation.
No less important on Thursday were the “fresh” data on manufacturing activity in Italy and in the other major economies of the Eurozone, signaled by the IHS Markit index which, after a long series of records, experienced an initial slowdown.
TODAY ON THE PIRELLI AND LUXOTTICA CALENDAR
The Piazza Affari agency is even richer. The calendar includes today the appointment with the accounts of Pirelli, Luxottica and Moncler. Appointments also with the quarterly Cerved, Autostrade Meridionali and Sogefi. It will continue tomorrow with Prysmian. Thursday will be the turn of A2A, Friday of Atlantia.
MEDIASET-VIVENDI, THE WORD TO THE COURT
At the center of attention today Mediaset and Telecom Italia. Barring sensational surprises, the lawyers of the Berlusconi group company should confirm to the Chamber of Arbitration of Milan the failure of the attempted agreement with Vivendi. Hence tomorrow's obvious resumption of the civil lawsuit brought against the company of the Bolloré group to ask for the execution of the Premium sales contract and compensation for the damages caused by the French about-face.
On the Telecom Italia front, the market will take note of the complicated sale of Persidera: the board of directors chaired by Amos Genish accepted the offer made by Raiway and F2i, but reserved the option of examining the offer received in extremis from the fund The Squareds.
FCA SAY ENOUGH TO DIESEL. AXIS BETWEEN BERLIN AND BEIJING
Fiat Chrysler will stop producing diesel cars by 2022. The decision, which could be made official with the new industrial plan to be released on June 1st, is motivated, explains the Financial Times (which anticipated the news) both by the drop in demand, especially on the US market, which, above all, from the perspective of the growing costs of adapting engines to the standards required by the new emission regulations.
FCA, which will continue to produce diesel for commercial vehicles, is thus following the path inaugurated by Toyota and now being followed by a growing number of manufacturers. The acceleration of the changes imposed by the mix of technology/new rules has been confirmed in recent days by the entry of the Chinese Geely (former owner of Volvo) into the capital of Daimler, of which it is now the second shareholder, after an investment of over 9 billion euros. The goal is to join efforts to support massive investments to respond to Beijing's requests to accelerate the mass transition to electric vehicles.
The choice of agreements between the Bigs, already envisaged and supported by Sergio Marchionne, is now concrete. Too bad that the "American" FCA can't beat the path of an alliance with the Chinese due to Washington's obvious veto. But in a few days, on March 6, the CEO of the group will reveal at least part of the strategy.
In the meantime, the data on February registrations in Italy and the United States will be released on Thursday.
In key EU to follow today Mario Draghi engaged in the commission of the European Parliament. Meanwhile, the awaited ECB seminar on virtual currencies, Bitcoin in the lead, will be held today.
POWELL'S DEBUT, WATCH OUT FOR INFLATION
But the attention on the front of the central banks is all for the debut of Jerome Powell. The new Fed chairman will testify for the first time on Wednesday before House and Senate committees. The markets are expecting Powell, while reiterating the obvious forthcoming rise in the cost of money, to offer a key to interpreting the central bank's management philosophy following the departure of Janet Yellen: in addition to rate choices, also the attitude towards the banking system. Less turmoil in the bond market should contribute to the president's debut: no major auctions of T-Bonds are expected in the next two weeks.
Some key data to follow on the macro front to confirm the state of health, excellent for now, of the American economy. The numbers on the trend of the real estate market and consumer confidence will be released. The second reading of the US GDP for the whole of 2017 will be announced on Wednesday. But the most awaited data concerns the level of "core" inflation, expected to rise by 0,3% (against the previous +0,2%), a further piece in the perspective of a rate hike.
BUFFETT: WHAT WILL YOU DO WITH THE 29 BILLION SAVED WITH THE TAX?
Meanwhile, Wall Street wonders about the moves by Warren Buffett: the tax reform has allowed Berkshire Hathaway to accumulate another 29 billion dollars in cash that the "sage of Omaha" will have to invest, which is not easy given the levels reached by the lists.
In the meantime, the quarterly campaign is drawing to a close. Macy's and other traditional trade groups stand out among the 31 S&P 500 companies that will report this week. Curiosity for Sotheby's numbers after an exceptional auction season.
Boeig is also under scrutiny: the Brazilian newspaper O globo writes that the US giant will have 51% of the joint venture in which Embraer's assets will be conferred.
