Stock markets in the next six months will be dominated by a increased uncertainty due to instability of the political and international framework of the last period. This is what emerges from the survey conducted by Forex Axiom in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor Plus.
Generally speaking, in June the total of those who see stable or growing markets in the next six months stands at 80%, down from the 87% recorded in May. Only 38% of Assiom Forex operators instead expect increases (ex 53%), which for 35% (ex 44%) will be between 3 and 10 percentage points while for a further 3% (ex 5%) leaps are possible higher than 10%. To estimate a probable stability of the markets is 42% of the operators, while no one believes reductions of more than 10% are possible.
On the front of you change, 48% of those interviewed see a stable euro/dollar exchange rate despite the growing divergence between monetary policies, although for 31% of operators a strengthening of the common currency is possible. On the rise, optimism on the front of the spread, now seen permanently below 200 points by the vast majority of experts.
“With the political risk that continues to remain in the background (in Italy there are worries about future elections and an electoral law that is still uncertain, in the USA the stalemate of Trump's electoral program) – commented the president of Assiom Forex Louis Belluti – and in the face of still weak inflation dynamics, possible negative effects on growth and unforeseen changes in monetary policy cannot be ruled out. As a result, distrust of new stock market rises in the next six months is also increasing among operators: in fact, for the majority the indices will remain essentially stable, while the percentage of those who start to see more accentuated and even 10%. It's as if the market is getting ready to go down”.
