For the third day Asian markets weakened, still mesmerized by the crisis in Europe. The euro remains at 1,27 and many interpret this weak level as a symptom of sovereign debt tensions. But 1,27 is also higher than the levels – 1,22-1,26 – which were recorded in the summer of 2010, when there were no signs of a crisis in Europe. Exchange rates fluctuate for the most disparate reasons and a weak euro today helps producers on the Old Continent – producers who need help, given that the recession is approaching.
The key country in the situation is Italy, for unflattering reasons, but there are two other key countries: the USA and China. The former is on the upswing, and the latter must be counted on to keep the world on the right track. Forecasts on the Chinese markets are not unequivocal: there are those who see a big rebound in the Shanghai index (SSEA) because monetary policy will still be loose, restarting an economy that in truth has never stopped. And there are those who instead expect a flat stock exchange, because the economy will not slow down enough to induce a more accommodating monetary policy. Common to these two positions, however, is the idea that the Chinese economy continues to expand unabated. In short, long live the growth of the Celestial Empire.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-09/asian-stocks-fall-as-euro-oil-drop-before-merkel-sarkozy-crisis-meeting.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-08/china-december-lending-money-supply-growth-exceed-economists-estimates.html
