THEartificial intelligence will have a strong impact on the public sector. 57% of the 3,2 million public employees, or approximately 1,8 million people, is “highly exposed” to the influence of AI in their jobs. This means that their work activities will suffer a significant interaction with the capabilities of algorithms. Such interaction could lead to enrichment of activities or to replacement of workers. This is what emerges from the research "The impact of artificial intelligence on public employment“, presented by FPA, a company of the Digital360 group, at the opening of the Pa 2024 Forum, an annual event that brings together public and private innovation entities taking place in Rome until 23 May.
The sectors most involved include managers, management roles, technicians, researchers, teachers, lawyers, architects, engineers, healthcare professionals and administrative assistants.
AI will improve the work, but there is the risk of substitution
Among the public workers highly exposed to AI, 80% could integrate AI into their work, achieving significant improvements. Around 1,5 million workers in leadership and management roles (such as school leaders, strategic managers, innovative project leaders, technical and professional experts, prefects, magistrates and general directors) can operate in a complementary way with new technologies, if adequately trained and supported by an enabling organisation. However, the 12% of workers are at risk of replacement: 218 thousand public employees who carry out less specialized professions, characterized by repetitive and predictable tasks, could easily be replaced by artificial intelligence.
The remaining 8% of public employees, around 154 thousand people, including many professions in the healthcare and diplomatic sectors, find themselves in an ambiguous zone between potential synergies with artificial intelligence and risks of replacement.
Pa: the impact of AI in sectors
THEimpact artificial intelligence varies in different sectors of the public sector. The central and local functions of the Public Administration (PA) are the most exposed, respectively in 96,2% and 93,5% of cases, followed by education and research with 72,6%. There greater synergy between work and AI is found in education and research, with 91,9% of staff having high complementarity with AI. The risk of replacement is particularly high in the central structures of the PA, with 47,4% (92.859 units), and in the local functions, with 23,8% (109.801 units).
The digital transformation of the PA
Over the last 15 years, the Italian public sector has suffered two great waves of transformation. The first, which began with the 2007 spending review, led to a reduction in public employees and a decline in investments in training, with salaries and workforce still lower than pre-crisis levels. The second wave, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, accelerated innovation and digitalisation processes to ensure the continuity and accessibility of public services, promoting new working flexibility.
In this context, the demand for public consultancy services grew by 30,5% between 2020 and 2023, reaching investments of 535 million euros in 2022, with forecasts of further annual growth of 5-10%.
According to an FPA investigation, artificial intelligence today represents an external shock for the PA, similar to the 2007 crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
“AI is drawing the boundaries of a new way of conceiving public work. The impact on the PA will be strong in both qualitative and numerical terms and is destined to gradually intensify with the progress of AI solutions. Highly specialized professions such as managerial roles, managers and professionals have a strong potential for collaboration, while low-specialised and routine ones are vulnerable to replacement, suggesting the need for role reconsideration and reskilling to mitigate its effects. There AI revolution represents the 'third wave' of transformation for the public sector in the last 15 years, after the spending review and the pandemic" he commented Gianni Dominici, CEO ffa.
“Faced with such an impact, public administration is called to one structural reform - he adds Carlo Mochi Sismondi, President of Fpa – “we need a review of training processes, oriented towards the development of skills such as creativity, adaptability, critical and lateral thinking and soft skills, which can qualify work freed from repetitive and routine tasks. At an organizational level, we must abandon the hierarchical and bureaucratic logic to introduce the flexibility necessary to manage change. While the management is called to abandon the culture of fulfillment towards one of objectives and results".
