Argentina has a new president: Javier Milei. An ultra-right, anarcho-capitalist, hyper-liberal and populist president all together. His victory against the Peronist candidate Sergio Massa in the run-off on Sunday 19 November worried international observers quite a bit (even, if not by chance, the US President congratulated him) especially due to the continuous utterances made by Milei during the election campaign. Among the most famous? “The state is useless".
Dollarisation, abolition of the Central Bank, all-round privatisations, are just some of the solutions that the new president has proposed to lift Argentina out of the economic crisis and allow it to put thehyperinflation which brought the country to its knees. But, now that he has been elected, will Milei keep his promises? We asked the professor Julius Sapelli, a counter-current intellectual and economic historian at the University of Milan, who knows Argentina very closely having also taught at the University of Buenos Aires.
Professor Sapelli, how do you judge the victory in Argentina of Javier Milei, who is described as anti-system and hyper-liberal at the same time?
«An expected victory, especially after the support guaranteed to Milei by former president Mauricio Macri. Macri's electoral tank was decisive for his victory which in any case was not as devastating as was thought on the eve of the run-off. He was expected to win with a percentage of 70% but instead he stopped at 56%. In an exhausted country like Argentina, where Peronism is slowly crumbling, the emergence of an ordoliberal and nationalist candidate at the same time was supported by big Argentine capital. A similar thing happened immediately after the end of the dictatorship. I was there for a series of conferences and I was able to observe firsthand how hyperinflation slowed down any process of change. Today we are seeing something very similar from the point of view of the orientation of large groups. The terratenientes have disappeared, now even the large estates of the pampas are in the hands of joint-stock companies listed on stock exchanges around the world. There is no longer the oligarchic structure of the past but there are large financial and real estate capital groups that are moving towards large operations throughout Argentina. So the neoliberal, populist and state-devastating position carried out by Javier Milei has gained the support of what remains of the nexus between Argentine capitalism and the Anglospheric capitalism represented by Macri."
From abroad, the support of former president Mauricio Macri - always considered a moderate - for the new president's electoral campaign was very surprising. How do you interpret this move?
«The Macri family moved with great fanfare to support Milei. Many didn't expect it, but this is Argentina. A country where classes mix, social elevators don't exist, but freight elevators do exist. It is a very different system from ours, but above all it is a country that the International Monetary Fund has prevented from defaulting. It is in everyone's interest that Argentina resists, the United States cannot afford to open another front in South America. Especially after Lula's victory which shifted Brazil's orientation, the Americans must hold on to Argentina. It is in this context that Macri's speech should be read. There was a need for someone who could guarantee a certain international orientation and Macri, with his traditional closeness to the USA, serves this purpose. To carry out his absurd electoral promises, Milei will need political allies who support his more radical proposals. But Macri will never say yes to his head shots. The same goes for Patricia Bullrich, the candidate of the centre-right United for Change coalition who came third in the first round and supported Milei in the run-off. Their task will be to "keep him quiet" and prevent him from destroying what remains of the State."
So what will happen todollarisation, the abolition of the central bank, the privatization of schools and healthcare and all of Milei's electoral promises?
«During the election campaign, absurd promises are made even in Italy, let alone in a country like Argentina. Lying is the essence of politics. Now that he has been elected, Milei will not do anything he said. The central bank will remain where it is anddollarization will remain a promise."
Milei also strongly criticized Pope Francis, only to later take back part of what he said. How does he interpret these positions?
«The criticisms of Pope Francis have disconcerted me too. He probably wanted to send a message to the non-Catholic forces in Argentina who are far from the Vatican. He also wanted to attract that type of electorate to guarantee himself more votes."
With the defeat of Sergio Massa and the victory of Milei, is Peronism definitively dead?
«The reality is that in Argentina people are upset, they can't take it anymore. And we don't think about this enough. Today's Argentina is characterized by three phenomena: the first is the survival economy which has reached its maximum point there. The second is the discredit of the political classes because good people don't want to be involved in politics. The third point is the still very strong presence of the trade unions, which are what remains of Peronism. There is still a system of intermediate organizations that manages to mobilize the masses and Milei will have to deal with it. Peronism is not dead, Massa got 40% of the votes. Are so many. And with Peronism the old Argentina still remains. We don't think that everyone is like Milei, many Argentines still hope that that "chainsaw" that is talked about so much will not be used and that the state will continue to function. Because State means welfare, support for survival. The game is open and Macri and the United States will take care of keeping Milei in check."
Will Argentina ever be able to emerge from its economic crisis?
«After the outcome of these votes, Argentina does not seem capable of emerging from the crisis. Much will also depend on what happens in Brazil and Chile, but in any case there won't be any big changes with Milei. We must not be dazzled by her folkloristic declarations. Eventually she will return to milder advice. Macri and the unions will make him understand that the world is not just made up of her follies. And probably the first to know is him."
In less than a year we will vote in the United States of America. Will the anti-system wave seen in Argentina also push Donald Trump's return to the White House?
«Milei's success in Argentina represents an international victory for Trump. The current context of uncertainty and international weakness favors it. He is the expression of a weak power, of the divisions of the deep state. The person who really won in Argentina is Trump and this is very worrying precisely because it suggests his probable victory in next year's US elections. And then yes it will be hard because the United States will withdraw, Russia will acquire imperialistic strength and Hamas will continue with its policies of death. What happened in Argentina may be a preview of what will happen in the United States. And this worries me a lot."
