In these last elections, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner showed the world the strength of Kirchnerism, based on the Argentines' gratitude for the growth after the difficult crisis of 2001. The couple K - it is no coincidence that Cristina wanted to share the moment of victory with her husband Néstor, who died last October 23 – has become a symbol for over 53% of the Argentine population. His policy, which is not preparing to change except perhaps at an economic level, it is based on the three pillars of Peronism: verticalism, centralism and populism.
Cristina got a broad support from different sections of the population. The lower classes voted for her and, thanks to the new social aids – from the universal check guaranteed for each birth to subsidies for the children of the unemployed – they have seen a decrease in poverty of 4 percentage points since 2007; the middle classes, who finally feel redeemed from the heavy losses suffered with the 2001 crisis – with an annual growth in consumption of 4% and many state wages increased more than inflation. Obviously you have obtained the support of the trade unions, which have always been linked to Peronism. Even some members of the upper class, and above all the owners of the mines, who enjoy excessive tax breaks, support Kirchnerism. Thanks to the increase in raw material prices, the soybean producers, who have always been at odds with the Kirchners, have scaled back their fight against Cristina in recent years. Finally, "the president" was able to enjoy the support of artists and intellectuals thanks to the huge funds that she has allocated to culture in recent years.
Thus the opposition was left with too small a portion to conquer. One of the four opponents, the justicialist-Peronist Duahalde, a few days before the elections admitted that Argentina has experimented hitherto unknown economic growth – nine consecutive years – but that "this increase in GDP was mainly due to the increase in the price of exports and not to the improvement of the production system".
And this is precisely one of the major ones challenges awaiting the Government of Cristina: improve production and not continue to subsidize consumption; fight inflation (around 20%) which risks causing the real exchange rate to appreciate too much and thus reduce the trade balance surplus, one of the main sources of revenue for the country; avoid capital flight; improve the situation of public safety – the homicide rate has remained unchanged since 2004 at 5,5% per 100 inhabitants (the USA is at 4,8% and Italy at 1%); finally to deal with the contagion from the European debt crisis, which has already forced its neighbor Brazil to devalue the real by 18% and has already caused a decrease in the prices of some raw materials.
One of the major political expectations concerns precisely the appointment of the new Minister of Economy, since the current one, Amado Boudou, will become vice president. Above all to see if he will be a figure endowed with enough charisma to restore to the ministry the power that has historically always been attributed to it. And that with Nestor Kirchner he had obscured himself behind the protagonism of the switchboard operator of Cristina's ex-husband. Among the candidates is the President of the Central Bank, Mercedes Marcò del Pont, a 52-year-old heterodox economist, who can already count on Cristina's trust; Débora Giorgi, current Minister of Industry; Hernàn Lorenzino, a young 39-year-old former finance secretary; Diego Bossio, who directs the Social Security; Roberto Feletti, current Deputy Minister of Economy.
One of them will work alongside Cristina for the next four years. They will have to be able to transform this enormous growth into sustainable development. Otherwise the Argentines will continue to live the illusory idea of a redemption of the past which, however, sooner or later will show the unsustainability of its model.
