The hypothetical Mr. Mario Rossi who on 26 September 1984, the day of the debut of the Arca funds, decided to allocate a part of his savings to that financial novelty, can be said to be satisfied: the 10 euros (or the equivalent in lire) invested that day, are worth today 79.524 if "parked" in Arca BB, more or less the same, 79.216 euros, in Arca RR. Of course, many things have changed in thirty years: Treasury bills of the time had double-digit yields, the cost of living galloped, the value of the brick seemed destined to grow indefinitely. But the result of the funds of Arca, one of the pioneers of the system, is nonetheless respectable: the 10 euros at the time, revalued with inflation, are equivalent to only 26.875 today, just over a third of what the Mr. Rossi's savings. In the same period, then, the first 10 euros set aside in Mr. Rossi's severance pay, then a young employee, grew to 32.627 euros, less than half of his funds.
The account was presented in Milan during “30 e lode”, the convention-celebration organized by Arca for the first thirty years of life of one of the pioneers of the Italian asset management system. An opportunity to take stock of one of the few industries, that of savings, which seems to be enjoying good health in the depressed landscape of the country. But even here, beyond the extraordinary goal of the 1.500 billion euros administered by the system, many rigidities emerge which, over time, can decisively condition our future as savers, called today to make demanding choices. It applies to individual savers, called today to allocate a third of their income to savings so as not to be poor pensioners tomorrow but to defend a quality of life in line with the times.
The calculation is easy to do: with the transition from the salary to the contributory system, the ratio between pension and last salary went from 0,8 to 0,55. Which means that today Mr. Rossi junior, son of the lucky eighties saver, has to calculate that, having a financial wealth equal to twice the annual salary, he needs an annual return on wealth equal to 7% (5% in real terms, net of future inflation) to maintain his standard of living unchanged. An objective that implies a certain risk, which can be kept under control if part of the savings is directed towards long-term investments in infrastructure, typical of pension funds.
But here one of the country's Achilles heels comes into play: despite the strong propensity to save, it shows embarrassing shortcomings in terms of long-term choices. If we look at the percentage weight of pension funds on GDP, underlined the CEO of Arca Sgr Ugo Loser, Italy is the rear in Europe with a percentage well below 10% against 160 for the Netherlands. In OECD countries the same pension funds are worth 70% of the mutual fund system, in Italy it does not exceed 17%. Not only. In countries such as Australia or Canada, funds are increasingly involved in infrastructure investments, with great benefits for the country's economy as well as medium-long term returns for investors. In Italy, on the contrary, 85% of the asset allocation ends up in government bonds or liquidity rather than in foreign assets, an obligatory choice given the lack of projects in Italy or, no less important, the difficulty in catching up with the new needs.
After all, many things have changed since the XNUMXs. And not always for the best. Until a few years ago, in fact, the Bel Paese was a coveted destination for American and northern European pension funds, the main lenders of infrastructure and medium-term investments. Today, however, this is no longer the case, with the result of a state of deep crisis of private equity. Italy, is Arca's diagnosis, must go it alone, creating pension funds capable of managing investments with the same competence and the same time horizons as its competitors. For this reason Arca, first of all the Italian asset management companies, decided to create a specialized division for institutional investments "in the belief - underlines Loser - that this is a matter that requires ad hoc specialization" as well as a greater presence in corporate governance .
In short, it is right to celebrate the funds, which have demonstrated transparency and security in recent years proof of nasty surprises. However, it is necessary to go forward with the same spirit and the same confidence as thirty years ago. What is missing is not the raw material, that is savings. But the will to use it to finance the future, an objective which, in truth, does not belong to the government's philosophy: the increase in the rates on the funds as well as the "liberation" of the severance pay itself respond to the need, meritorious but short-lived, to give relief to consumption. If the course is not corrected, there is a risk of putting a heavy mortgage on the life strategies of many Italians, still waiting for the phantom orange envelope.
