A value not seen since January 2015, i.e. 1,19105. This is where the euro/dollar cross reached on Wednesday evening, before correcting to 1,1837. Operators are now considering it probable that the single currency can break through the barrier of 1,20 on the US currency which certainly does not benefit from the constant skirmishes between Congress and the President, who yesterday bent on signing the sanctions voted by Parliament against Moscow declaring that he considers them "strongly wrong".
But the euro doesn't just shine against the dollar. In the last two weeks, the single currency has gained 4% against the Swiss franc, the safe haven par excellence, traded at 1,1488, and has also recovered against the yen. It is a consequence of the economic recovery underway, but also a bet on the future choices of the ECB: the markets are convinced that signs of a forthcoming, gradual cut in purchases on the market are arriving from the Frankfurt bank.
Meanwhile, the strong euro is holding back the run of the European stock exchanges, committed to digesting the wave of quarterly reports. Wall Street also loses momentum, but, thanks to Apple, the Dow Jones manages to exceed 22. Cruising speed does not change: it took just under four months to climb from 20 points in January to 21 at the end of March. Today, 120 days later, the index has raked up another thousand points. A regular march, perhaps too much, favored by an almost zero volatility which is starting to scare.
BRAKE SAMSUNG. SOY SAUCE FLIES TO TOKYO
The eastern markets were weak in the morning. The Asia Pacific index fell by 0,9% under the pressure of the Korean stock (-1,8%). Samsung retraces (-2,6%) from last week's highs: many investors are back on Apple. Hong Kong (-0,4%) and Sydney (-0,2%) also fell. The exploit of Kikkoman (+5,2%) in Tokyo should be noted: sales of soy sauce are booming.
In the aftermath of the Central Bank of India's 25 basis point interest rate cut, the Mumbai Stock Exchange lost 0,5%. The Brazilian Stock Exchange gained 0,9%. During the night, Parliament rejected the motion that would have put the President of the Republic, Michel Temer, on trial.
THE APPLE CASE RISES TO 251 BILLION DOLLARS
On Wall Street, a new historic record for the Dow Jones: 22.016,24 with an increase of 0,24%. The S&P 500 +0,05% moved little. Nasdaq down 0,3%. The main tech stocks, starting with Microsoft and Alphabet, fell. But the sector was supported by Apple, which after the quarterly closed up 4%, at 157,9 dollars per share, an all-time high. The cash register continues to rise: CFO Luca Maestri has 251 billion dollars in liquidity at his disposal.
Tesla released quarterly data tonight: revenues more than doubled and losses on the rise, but less than expected. The stock gained 3% post-exchange, up 52% since the beginning of the year.
Brent oil finished up 1,1% at $52,4. Last week, US oil inventories fell by 1,5 million barrels: the consensus was expecting a more pronounced drop, -3 million. US oil production rose 0,2% to 9,43 million barrels per day. This morning Brent changed hands at 52,2 dollars a barrel. Positive Eni (+0,4%), down Saipem (-0,5%) and Tenaris (-0,9%).
EUROPEAN LISTS IN RED. THE SPREAD DROP TO 153
The rise of the dollar combined with the Wall Street sell-off and the negative effect of some bank balance sheets pushed European stocks into the red. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed the session down by 0,18%, at 21.573 points. Heavier losses on the other markets: Paris dropped 0,4%, Frankfurt fell back by 0,6%. Madrid -0,68%. Markets outside the eurozone are doing better. Zurich advances by 0.75% : the franc has depreciated by 5% against the euro since the beginning of the year. On the eve of the Bank of England meeting, London lost 0,2%.
Btp in a state of grace in a session with low volumes. The 2-year bond approached the 2,011% barrier (153) while the Italy/Germany spread closed at 152 basis points, three points below Tuesday evening, after a brief dip to 25, a value already reached on 10,5 July but only before then in mid-December. In the meantime, the market is preparing for today's appointment with the French and Spanish offers, for a total maximum amount of XNUMX billion euros.
CALENDA: GOLDEN POWER ON TIM? IT SHOULD NOT BE EXCLUDED
The Minister of Economic Development, Carlo Calenda, underlined yesterday that the debate on the possibility of nationalizing the Telecom network is "useful and legitimate" but must not be used in an anti-French key after the Paris about-face on Fincantieri's control of Stx France. But it is not difficult to connect the news that the government has decided to evaluate the use of golden power on Telecom Italia (+0,30%) with the chill caused by the French decision to nationalize the Saint Nazaire shipyards, canceling the agreement already reached with the Italian company.
"We will apply the rules on golden shares with intransigence - said Calenda - and we will propose anti-robbery rules on listed companies". The press release of last July 28 with which the control by the French Vivendi was in fact official is being examined. This opens up a path which – in theory – could lead Palazzo Chigi to fathom how "the acquisition of control and management activity" of the former Telecom by the French has an impact on a vital ganglion for Italy such as the telecommunications network.
FINCANTIERI CLOSES 5 BILLION DEAL IN QATAR
While waiting for developments in the Stx case, Fincantieri (-1,29%) scores a big blow, which has already been foreseen. Qatar has announced that it has finalized a 5 billion euro agreement with Italy for the supply, over 5 years, of 7 naval units destined for the Navy of the Arab monarchy. The contract also includes a 15-year maintenance and assistance service. Leonardo and its subsidiary Mbda are associated in the consortium with Fincantieri.
On the STX front, Calenda reiterated the line of firmness in Parliament while always keeping a channel of constructive dialogue open with the French government. “We believe – he underlined – that all the conditions exist for reaching an agreement on Stx and moving forward on the partnership project between Fincantieri and Naval Group”. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron's blitz risks turning out to be a boomerang: the Wall Street Journal speaks of a "fiasco", the German Handelsblatt of a serious blow to European solidarity.
GENERALI SUPERSTAR: OPERATING PROFIT FLYING
Generali really took the lion's share yesterday on the wave of first-half data: the stock closed the session with a rise of 2,79%, at 15,83 euros, the highest since mid-January. The third largest insurance company in Europe recorded a net profit of 2017 billion euros in the first half of 1,22, up 3,7%. Operating profit at 2,6 billion (+4,1%), higher than expected (2,51 billion) thanks in particular to the good performance of the Non-Life business.
With regard to the possible conversion of the Carige bond held by the insurance group, Donnet pointed out curtly: “I have no comment on this situation. On Carige we are creditors and we remain creditors”. On Monday the new CEO of the Ligurian institute Paolo Fiorentino said that “no decision has been made. We continue to work”, adding that the issue will be “the subject of the next board of directors”.
The banks suffered (European Stoxx -0,9%) following the fall of Société Générale, France's third largest bank, down 3,9% after announcing disappointing results, with profits down 28%. In particular, investors are concerned about a new provision of 300 million euros for unspecified legal disputes. In Milano Intesa it fell by 0,5%, Unicredit -1,1%, Banco Bpm +2%, Ubi -0,5%.
FERRARI CRASHES. MARCHIONNE DOES NOT TOUCH THE TARGET
Ferrari shares skidded (-3,66%), which practically burned Tuesday's gains (+4,15%). Sergio Marchionne confirmed the group's utility vehicle project (“but you have to shoot me before I make an SUV”) and the possibility of doubling production, but did not review the targets for 2017, as the market had hoped. Hence the disappointment of the operators despite the flattering numbers. In the first six months, revenues rose to 1,74 billion (+17%), adjusted net profit, 136 million, grew by 30% with an ebit of 202 million "at a record level" (+29% ).
Net industrial debt decreased to 627 million compared to 653 million at December 31, 2016, "thanks to the generation of a strong industrial free cash flow, despite the distribution to holders of ordinary shares equal to 120 million euros". Marchionne said that “within the first quarter of next year there will be a Ferrari Investor Day, in which the new floor plan of the house will be presented. It is possible to double production levels in Maranello – he added – The structures are already there”.
Fiat-Chrysler -1,6%. Among other industrialists, Buzzi -2,3% and Leonardo -1,3%,
ATLANTIA READY TO RETOUCH THE OFFER ON ABERTIS
Atlantia (+0,50%) does not rule out improving the offer on the Spanish Abertis should a competing offer be presented to the 16,3 billion public tender offer launched in June and under the scrutiny of the Iberian Stock Exchange Authority. "It's too early to say," replied the CEO, Giovanni Castellucci, to a question about the possibility of raising the price offered by 16,5 euros per share in the event of a counter takeover bid by the ACS group.
Falling interest rates favor utilities. Italgas gains 1,1% after SocGen's promotion to Buy. After the disappointing accounts released on Monday, Ferragamo is down (-3%). De' Longhi -2,3%: Banca IMI cut the recommendation to Reduce (lighten the position) from Hold. However, the target is growing to 23,3 euros from 21,70 euros. Falck Renewables closes up 4%. This morning Kepler Cheuvreux strengthened the Buy rating, bringing the target price to 1,50 euro from 1,30 euro.
