The growth of pharmaceutical production global is slowed down by 0,5% in 2023, after an increase of 17,3% in 2021 and 6,8% in 2022, a peak determined by the massive production of Covid vaccines. In the 2024, atradius However, it expects global production and sales to increase by 4,6% and 5,1% respectively, driven mainly by Far Eastern markets. Vaccine production will continue to support growth, albeit at a lower level than in previous years.
Manufacturers of medicines for chronic diseases e generic drugs will find opportunities among progressively aging populations. At the same time, drug manufacturers for weight loss they estimate growth of over $75 billion by 2030. Not by chance Novo Nordisk e Eli Lilly, a leader in the production of anti-obesity drugs, shine on Wall Street.
New regulations, finance and resilience in the pharmaceutical industry
THEinflation and high interest rates have impacted households' purchasing power, leading to lower demand for products such as over-the-counter medicines. The need to reduce budget deficits and public debt is also likely to impact healthcare spending. Some markets including the EU, US and UK are imposing new drug pricing regulations in a bid to reduce government costs. This is meeting some resistance from the industry, as regulated prices will impact investment in research and development.
However, the sector appears solid in terms of equity, solvency and liquidity. Most pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies are able to enjoy good access to external financing to support their high research and development expenses.
European pharmaceutical prospects between challenges and opportunities
In Europe, after a modest increase of 0,1% last year, growth of 3,3% is expected in the two-year period 2024-25, conditional on a rebound in incomes that would support demand for over-the-counter medicines. It should not, however, be forgotten that high energy prices they impact directly through the cost of fuel, and indirectly through the increase in production costs for the raw materials of the ingredients.
Furthermore, most of the community markets they are highly regulated, with constraints that affect company profits. For example, to increase access in all member countries, the European Commission has proposed reducing the minimum period of drug exclusivity from ten to eight years. Some drug companies argue that this could discourage investment in research and development.
In Europe, industry financial indicators are also strong, but some SMEs may face financing problems. This is due to the high research and development costs, competition from India and China, and the difficulty of obtaining competitive interest rates. Analysts reiterate that the prospects for the European sector are solid in both the medium and long term. Pharmaceuticals are essential commodities, the region has established manufacturing facilities, secure supply chains and high manufacturing standards. Furthermore, manufacturers and wholesalers will continue to benefit frompopulation ageing.
