The electoral rounds of the last few years in Latin america they had led 9 out of 12 countries to have left-wing governments, but the wind is already changing: is the red wave already over? in Paraguay the conservatives have confirmed themselves and the ultra-right rises, in Argentina we are moving towards the victory of the extremist Mieli and in other countries the socialists are faltering.
Latin America: political turmoil returns. Has the red wave effect run out?
For a change, theLatin america is experiencing a new period of political turmoil. Some signs would suggest that the effect of the red wave is already running out, after the electoral rounds of recent years had led 9 out of the 12 countries in the area to have more or less left-wing governments: only Ecuador, Uruguay and Paraguay, provided they can be considered left-wing management bordering on democratic like Lopez's Obrador in Mexico and of Castillo in Peru. On closer inspection, in assessing the purse of the political colors of the area it would be better to say that if Athens cries, Sparta does not laugh.
Lula loses popularity in Brazil, Castillo attempts coup in Peru
In fact, it is undeniable that the so-called red wave (in South America they call it Ursal, União das Repúblicas Socialistas da América Latina) is fading, but not even the right can fully celebrate. The signs are clear: Lula returned to rule Brazil but with a very narrow victory over the much-discussed Bolsonaro, and his popularity has plummeted after 4 months, as has the approval of the markets and part of the international community, given his ambiguous positions on the war in Ukraine. Even worse it went into Peru to Pedro Castillo, who after a clumsy coup attempt was deposed and arrested, and is going into Chile to the young socialist Gabriel boric, elected in 2022 and then rejected by his own voters in referendum for the new constitution.
And Pinochet sympathizer Kast is advancing in Chile
The switch has already taken place in Santiago: in the new Constituent Assembly which will have to revise the text of the Charter, the center-right of the Pinochetista José Antonio Kast. The same could happen in Argentina next October, when the current Peronist president, Alberto Fernandez, will not run again, and neither will former president Cristina Kirchner: everything therefore points to a return to power of the right, with even the nightmare of a far-right victory led by populist Javier Milei, which in the polls is given an advantage with 24% of the preferences.
Latin America: the Stock Exchanges are racing but the rise of the ultra-right is feared
The real danger that keeps the markets alert is precisely this: the onset of extremisms like Trump and Bolsonaro. In the area to date stock exchanges tend to run and the economic prospects are substantially of good growth, thanks to raw materials, but the conditions of the population do not always follow these indicators: in Argentina the poverty rate has exceeded 40% and Brazil is back on the UN Hunger Map (over 15 million Brazilians do not have guaranteed access to food). This means that figures such as Milei can emerge, who is indeed a university professor but defines himself as an "anarcho-capitalist" and is famous for insulting opponents and journalists.
Political polarization infects Paraguay and Ecuador
This scheme has already been seen in Paraguay, where the conservative party recently won the elections, confirming itself in power for decades (for 70 years if we also consider the period of Alfredo Stroessner's dictatorship): the economist Santiago Pena won with 42,7% of the votes and all in all, his is a moderate right-wing proposal, but it is newsworthy the rise of the ultra-right of Payo Cubas, considered the Bolsonaro of Paraguay and founder of the Cruzada Nacional movement, against same-sex marriages, abortion even in cases of violence and the presence of foreigners in the country.
The extremist party was running for the first time in the elections and obtained an astonishing 23%, electing 5 senators and 5 deputies. Cubas was later arrested for taking part in violent protests on charges of fraud, but in the meantime the political polarization it was created in a country where undeclared work represents 64% of the market and which occupies position 105 (out of 189) in the UN Human Development Index. And to testify the not exactly excellent state of health not even of the right is the case of theEcuador: on May 17, President Pablo Lasso dissolved the Chambers and called new elections. He did it to avoid his own impeachment since he is involved in one corruption scandal.
It is the first time that early elections have been held in Ecuador for this reason. And the chances of confirmation for Lasso are very low: 80% of the population no longer likes it, it is not even certain that he will reapply. The country, in addition to an economic crisis, is also going through acrime emergency: The homicide rate doubled from 2021 to 2022 and last year 420 inmates were murdered in prison over drug-related settlements. In this scenario, former President Correa's left will also struggle to assert itself, given that its leader fled to Belgium after being convicted of corruption. Even in Ecuador the time seems ripe for another South American Trump.
