Electricity represents the energy vector of the future, as an enabling factor of sustainability, resilience and economic development for the country. Its importance derives not only from the decisive role it plays in reducing CO2 emissions and in mitigating the overall impact of human activities on the environment, but also from its ability to act as a driving force for innovation, industrial efficiency and the creation of new employment.
This is what emerges from Electrify 2030 study, created by The European House – Ambrosetti in collaboration with Enel anticipated, in the context of the Cernobbio Forum, in a press conference attended by Valerio De Molli, managing director The European House – Ambrosetti, Raffaele Tiscar and Francesco Profumo, members of the scientific committee of the study, Francesco Starace, managing director of Enel, Francesco Venturini, head of Enel X, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency and which was attended by the president of Enel, Patrizia Grieco.
"The energy sector is experiencing a period of profound transformation, influenced by technological progress that is revolutionizing the way we produce, distribute and consume energy", commented Francesco Starace, CEO of Enel. “The first consequence of the drop in the cost of renewable energies is the reduction in the price of electricity which, increasingly sustainable and economical, is destined to become the main source of energy in final consumption. Faced with an increasingly renewable generation, the progressive penetration of the electric vector will allow not only to decarbonise the most polluting sectors of the economy, but also to make the best use of the resources at our disposal".
“The latest data on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions in the world show that the traditional energy paradigm, based on the production of energy only from fossil sources, is no longer viable. In this context, the electric vector has the potential to become the energy vector of the future,” he says Valerio De Molli, Managing Partner & CEO of The European House – Ambrosetti. “Above all, electrification represents an unprecedented industrial opportunity, with the activation of new industrial chains, the creation of new jobs and a stimulus to investments. Our consultants have estimated that electric mobility as a whole could activate a cumulative turnover of between 102,4 and 456,6 billion euros by 2030 in Italy. With reference instead to electrification technologies, our simulations predict that the adoption of electrical technologies can activate a total turnover from a minimum of 135 billion euros to a maximum of 326,5 billion euros for the country by 2030".
The research was carried out by Enel X and the Enel Study Center Foundation which, as scientific partner, contributed to the definition of the elaborated scenarios and operational proposals for the diffusion of the electric vector. The analysis starts from data relating to greenhouse gas emissions, which have grown steadily globally to reach 2016 million tons of CO58.710 in 2, equal to an increase of 62% compared to 1990. The response to a scenario of this genre, which it imposes as a priority on the world agenda an acceleration of the decarbonisation process, must be sought – explains the study – in the electric vector. For at least five reasons. First of all, electricity, if generated from a balanced mix with a significant share of renewables, makes it possible to reduce CO2 emissions; strengthens the resilience of the energy system; promotes greater energy efficiency; integrates easily with digitization, facilitating better management of consumption; finally, it stimulates innovation and sustainability of lifestyles and industrial processes, ensuring better products.
The evolution is underway, underlines the study, but it needs to be strengthened. Between 1990 and 2016 electrification increased at European (from 17% to 22%) and Italian (from 17% to 21%) level and many scenarios outline a further potential that can be reached in 2030, quantified in an increase of between 3 and 9 percentage points for both Europe and Italy. At the national level, the relatively highest growth is expected in the transport sector, with projections of an increase from the current 2% to a range between 5% and 8%. A significant increase is estimated – from 26% to 32%-34% – also for the electrification of buildings. Finally, the industrial sector has an estimated potential of 2-4 additional points, starting from the current share of 35%.
e-Mobility. The transport sector is, therefore, the Italian sector with the greatest prospects. If we take into account the extended e-Mobility supply chain, we arrive at identifying around 160.000 companies potentially involved, with over 820.000 employees and a total turnover, to date, of over 420 billion euros. The study also estimates the economic benefits achievable in Italy by 2030: in this case, the additional turnover is between 102,4 and 456,6 billion euros.
Six electrification technologies to focus on for the Buildings and Industry segments. To identify the most promising, the analysis develops a model that identifies over 60 capable of generating a significant economic impact. In Italy, the overall industrial chain is in fact potentially made up of around 17.000 companies with over 320.000 employees and a turnover of around 80 billion euros. In particular, reveals research, the key technologies are: heat pumps; LED lights; electrochemical storage systems; the electric motor; power electronics; energy management systems, capable of generating total revenues between 135 and 326,5 billion euros.
The strategy. The stimulus deriving from the electrification process, concludes the analysis, however requires a transversal action to obtain all the benefits and opportunities that can be activated. In detail, it is necessary to focus on the following areas: the diffusion of electric mobility, the promotion of energy efficiency, the strengthening of collaboration between companies and research, the strengthening of national skills for frontier electric technologies, the diffusion of awareness of the benefits of electrification.
The Distribution System Manager (GSD) can act as an enabler, supporting technology development and associated investment. From a legislative and regulatory point of view, the investment that the GSD needs for its network should therefore be adequately encouraged, both in terms of digitization and renewal, committing itself to managing the ever-increasing integration of renewables, the diffusion of a extensive network of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles and a greater share of electricity in final energy consumption. Furthermore, it is necessary to define rules and responsibilities of the various network operators (TSG and GSD), in line with the current European regulatory framework.
