The shadow of the coronavirus is spreading, since yesterday promoted a "global emergency" by the World Health Organization, worried that the epidemic will spread to the poorest countries, less able to deal with the emergency. But the financial markets have already found a unique vaccine to protect the bull: the Amazon therapy. The accounts of Jeff Bezos' colossus, published after the Stock Exchange, surprised analysts, allaying fears about the increase in the cost of delivering parcels. On the contrary, the same-day food delivery service now covers 2 US cities, contributing to the turnover boom (+22% in the quarter).
BEZOS EARNED 13 BILLION
Prime customers have reached 150 million, from 100 million two years ago. The stock immediately took off: +10%, with an increase in the stock market value of more than 100 billion dollars and, consequently, a gain of 13 billion for Bezos.
Amazon's confidence boost is obviously not enough to offset the damage from the booming epidemic. There are 98 confirmed cases in 18 countries, with no deaths so far. Meanwhile in China the number of infected people has risen to over 9.692, while the death toll is 213. The first two cases have been identified in Italy: these are two Chinese tourists on holiday in Rome. Italy has canceled flights with China.
JP MORGAN: WORLD GDP WILL DROP BY 0,3%
According to JP Morgan, world GDP will suffer a 0,3% cut in the first quarter. At least 14 provinces in China have extended the holidays by more than a week, ordering businesses to remain closed. This shutdown should weigh on next month's economic performance. Meanwhile, the index on the expectations of purchasing managers of manufacturing companies fell to 50 in January, from 50,2 in December, the first drop after two months of improvement. A figure to be considered with caution given the emergency as well as the trend of share prices. Shanghai still closed, however, the other Asian markets are trying to raise their heads in the wake of Wall Street's quarterly records.
Tokyo's Nikkei is up 0,9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0,2%, Taiwan's Taiex, down more than 5% yesterday, up 1% this morning. The equity markets of Australia, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia were down slightly or on par.
The offshore yuan appreciated slightly to 6,97 against the dollar, while the Japanese yen fell to 109,08. Gold showed little movement at 1.571 dollars, slightly down, after a high for the day at 1.585 dollars. Brent oil up 2% to 59,5 dollars a barrel, from -2,5% yesterday.
POSITIVE FINAL FOR WALL STREET, ADVANCE TESLA AND COCA COLA
Thanks to the recovery in the last hour, the US lists are positive: Dow Jones +0,43%, S&P 500 +0,31%. NASDAQ +0,26%.
Amazon but not only. The quarterly reports from Microsoft (+2,8%) and above all from Tesla (+10,3%) contributed to supporting the US markets. On the other hand, Facebook (-6,7%) was disappointing, held back by the increase in costs, and Altria (-4,2%) in the face of higher provisions for legal expenses linked to electronic cigarettes. In great evidence Coca Cola, +3,3% after the accounts.
BLACK THURSDAY FOR EUROPE: MILAN -1,6%
The positive ending of the US price lists can bring some optimism back to Europe too, on the day of the great farewell of the United Kingdom to the European Union. Yesterday the European markets, bent by the numbers of the Asian crisis, gave way after three positive sessions. The fall in the prices of energy stocks, which began in the morning under pressure from Shell's accounts, contributed to causing Black Thursday. The Eurostoxx 50 index loses 1,4%. Only the Vix rose, the fear index which rose to 17,8 points, to levels it hadn't seen since September.
Piazza Affari, the worst Bosa, lost 1,59% again below 24 points. The index slipped to 23.781 points after hitting its highest level since May 2018 on Wednesday.
DEUTSCHE BANK BOUNCES, BAD SWATCH
Sales also in Frankfurt (-1,6%). Deutsche Bank (+3,4%) reversed the negative trend and is the best German blue chip at the end of the session. The Bank recorded higher-than-expected losses, but signaled faster-than-expected progress on its restructuring plan.
German inflation in January, year on year, stood at +1,7%, in line with expectations, but up on the previous month (+1,5%).
Against expectations, the unemployed in Germany fell by 2.000 to 2,277 million in January, against estimates of an increase of 5.000.
Paris (-1,4%) and Madrid (-0,76%) are also bad. Zurich -1,01% after the cold shower of one of the most representative stocks of sustainable luxury: the Swiss Swatch dropped 3,90%.
In Amsterdam Unilever (+2,5%) is the best blue chip in the Eurostoxx 50, again thanks to the quarterly.
London -1,31%. The Bank of England with 7 votes in favor and 2 against left the cost of money unchanged and cut its estimates on British GDP (+0,8% in 2020, from +1,2% previously estimated). The British central bank does not rule out a rate cut in the next few months if other disappointing signals should arrive from the gross domestic product and inflation figures.
The European Central Bank says it is ready to act in the face of any spikes in market volatility following Brexit.
BTP, THE MARKET WAITS FOR 15 YEARS
Flight from risk supports bond market purchases. Yesterday the Treasury placed bonds for 8,75 billion euros, the maximum of the expected range, with rates falling to their lowest levels in four months on both 5-year and 10-year maturities.
Attention now turns to the new 15-year union, scheduled for next week.
The Italy-Germany yield spread remains at its lowest since the beginning of November at 138 basis points, with the 0,93-year rate at 0,41%, the lowest level since October The German Bund is stationary at -XNUMX%, the lowest level since October.
SAIPEM AND TENARIS IN DEEP RED
Piazza Affari, the worst Stock Exchange, has paid a high price for the crisis in the energy sector. The setback of Tenaris (-4,9%) and Saipem (-3,4%) was abrupt despite Jefferies having confirmed the Buy and raised the target (from 4,9 to 5,5 euros). Maire Tecnimont does even worse (-5,1%). Eni -2,72%.
Among the producers of green energy, however, Erg shines (+1,5%) at the highest level since 2006.
BANKS ALSO UNDER FIRE: BPM -3,8%
The decline in the spread did not prevent strong selling in the banking sector. As usual, Banco Bpm (-3,8%) was the stock preferred by the sellers. At these prices, reads a note from Fidentiis, Banco's valuation is too low to support M&A projects. Banco Bper also falls (-3,5%). Among the big names, Intesa dropped 1,2%. Unicredit (-2,2%). Andrea Enria, chairman of the supervisory board of the European Central Bank has pledged to remove some obstacles to cross-border bank mergers in the euro zone, such as restrictions on the transfer of liquidity between branches in different countries. Unicredit is among the most favored by this process.
ENEL RESISTS, PROMOTED BY GOLDMAN SACHS
The utilities, defensive par excellence, lose less than the index. Enel is still in positive territory (+0,2%): Goldman Sachs raised its target from 8,1 to 8,80 euros, Buy opinion confirmed. A2A loses 0,84%, also down by Snam (-0,59%) and Italgas (-0,38%).
Atlantia also falls (-3%). The risk of revocation of the concession on the motorways remains standing.
SAFILO RUNS, PUSHED BY KEPLER Safilo goes against the trend +6,65% after the data on sales and Kepler's upgrade to “buy”. Equita writes that "the 2019 preliminary data are consistent with the December guidance and our estimates".
