What impact have Crimea and geopolitical tensions had on the tenth luxury market in the world and the fifth in Europe, with 5,8 billion in 2013 (and growth of 5% on 2012)? This was asked by the Altagamma Foundation at a conference organized today in Milan on Russia, which highlights the repercussions of the macroeconomic scenario on this market segment: the expected decline in 2014 is between 4 and 6%, with a collapse in consumption 5% in Moscow and – an even more worrying aspect for Made in Italy – 13% of Russian purchases in Italy.
But it is not only the military operation in Ukraine that has had an impact, as Armando Branchini, Vice President of the Altagamma Foundation explains: "More than the political crisis, which is destined to pass, it will be the structural fragility of the Russian economy that will affect high-end consumption for many more years". The data also supports the thesis: inflation is expected to be high for 2014 (6,5%), GDP is not expected to grow in 2014 (the Central Bank of Russia estimates a +2015 for 2016/1,7, XNUMX%) and in recent weeks, also as a result of the events in Crimea, the ruble has also weakened significantly. In the face of this, the largest export of capital in recent years is expected in the short term.
According to the forecasts of the round table, which was attended by Paolo Magri, Executive Vice President and Director of ISPI, Regina Von Flemming, CEO of Axel Springer Russia and Publisher of Forbes and Forbes online Russia, Alexander Bogomolov, Editor-in-Chief of www .forbes.ru, and various representatives of Italian luxury companies, the improvement will only occur in 2017. “When Moscow enters the WTO and will be effective – explains Branchini – the reduction of duties on the product categories most involved in the range. The current base of high-end consumers shouldn't reduce its spending power, but the unknown factor will be whether or not the Russian consumer base will expand”.
At the moment, in fact, Russia has by far the highest retail rental prices per square meter in Europe and also the consumption of Russian citizens in the European Union in the first 5 months of 2014 has drastically decreased compared to the same period in 2013. According to Global Blue it is -12,8% in Italy and France, -15,8% in Germany and -20,1% in Great Britain. A particularly heavy drop especially for Italy, which sees Russian citizens as the first nationality for purchases.
In addition to joining the World Trade Organization, consumption will also be boosted by the new Russian government restrictions on online purchases from abroad: the duty-free threshold will be lowered from 1.000 to 150 euros. Currently, according to the data presented by Altagamma, Moscow is the first city in terms of consumption, with 59% of the total, St. Petersburg the second with 16%.
