"The world economy runs a serious risk of derailment." The alarm was launched by David Lipton, the number two of the International Monetary Fund. The fall in international trade justifies the alarm on the danger that the growth convoy could go off the rails: the collapse of Chinese exports (-25,4% in February) which abruptly interrupted the recovery of oil and share prices .
After five positive sessions, the US markets closed in the red: the S&P 500 lost 1,12%, back below the 2.000 level; Dow Jones 0,64%, Nasdaq -1,26%. The plunge in oil prices weighed on the lists: Brent crude oil closed below 40 dollars, down 3%. Mining and oil companies fell the most.
Asia also suffers. This morning Shanghai falls 2,3%, Shenzhen loses 1,5%. Hong Kong -0,7% was also in the red. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index loses 1,6%, while the rush of purchases on the yen does not stop
JAPANESE 0,458 YEAR YEAR RETURNS XNUMX%
The decline in Japanese rates continues at a pace worthy of the Guinness Book of Records. At the government bond auction, issues with maturities of up to 11 years recorded negative rates. The 0,458-year was assigned a yield of 100.000%. That is, there are those who lend 2046 thousand yen in Tokyo until 458, contenting themselves with collecting XNUMX.
In the face of this clamorous sign of distrust in the recovery, many think that Boj governor Haruhiko Kuroda will present a new package of measures to revive the economy as early as next week.
This is how anticipation for tomorrow's ECB meeting is heating up, the key event for the financial markets which are calling on Mario Draghi's "creative imagination" to defeat the ghosts evoked by the fall in prices and the risks that a further drop in yields may have on bank accounts.
EUROPEAN EXCHANGES WEAK OPENING TODAY. MILAN YESTERDAY -0,2%
Concerns about global growth clipped the wings of European stock exchanges yesterday, which fell again after a three-week rise. In Milan, the FtseMib index closed down by 0,2%, the Paris Stock Exchange lost 0,8%, Frankfurt -0,8%, London -0,9%. The worst falls were in mining (European Stoxx -9%), automotive (-2,6%) and oil (-2,4%).
A downward opening is expected this morning for the stock exchanges of the Old Continent. Paris will open, according to futures, at -0,9%, coinciding with the transport strike, the first act of the campaign against the reform of the labor market. Frankfurt also down -0,8%, London -0,1% more stable.
SAIPEM SINK AFTER THE BANKS RELEASE
The ups and downs in crude oil have also affected Piazza Affari. In the Italian list, the worst blue chip was Saipem with a drop of 14%. Yesterday the banks of the consortium guaranteeing the capital increase, not all but a large part, put the unopted shares on the market, around 700 million shares.
The accelerated sale took place at a price of 0,39 euros. Thanks to the stock's rebound in recent days, the sellers recorded a small capital gain of just under 20 million euros. Meanwhile, Bernstein more than halved his target price to 0,20 from 0,52 euros, confirming the Underperform recommendation. It is the lowest target among the 26 surveyed by Bloomberg.
Eni lost 2,5%. Since the beginning of the year, the six-legged dog has shown a negative performance of 5%. In the same period, oil gains 7% thanks to robust increases since mid-January (+50%). Tenaris -3,6%.
The decline of Saras continues (-5,17%) after the drop in refining margins in the Mediterranean area.
ACCELERATE FERRARI. TODAY ROAD SHOW IN MILAN FOR THE BOND
The difficulties of China, the first customer of German cars and Peugeot, made themselves felt in the auto sector. But the general climate did not prevent Ferrari's sprint which closed up by 3,03% at 37,79 euros. The group is currently in the Road Show for the presentation of the 500 million bond, soon to be issued. After the stops in London and Paris, today the top management is in Milan.
The stock has been listed on Piazza Affari since 4 January, the initial price was 43,70 euros, the loss since the beginning of the year is 14%. Fiat Chrysler lost 4,4%. In the industrial sector, the performance of Finmeccanica stands out (+2%): Goldman Sachs has raised its recommendation to Buy from Neutral, the target price is unchanged at 14 euros. The company will present the 2015 data on March 16th.
Prysmian increased slightly (+0,21%). JP Morgan raised its target price from 19 to 20 euros, confirming the neutral recommendation.
TELECOM ITALIA COURTED BY ORANGE. AND RENTI DOESN ' T SAY NO
Telecom Italia (+1,6%) has completed yesterday the sale of Telecom Argentina to Fintech for a further 550,6 million dollars which add to the 329,5 already arrived with the initial agreement between December 2013 and October 2014.
But attention yesterday focused on the advances coming from Orange. CEO Stephane Ricard said that the French company (formerly France Telecom) would be ready to look at a possible merger with Telecom Italia, if asked by Vincent Bolloré, president of Vivendi, the largest shareholder of the Italian telephone group.
“If one day Bolloré told me: the best thing would be to make an agreement between us and get Orange to buy Telecom Italia, we would be wary of each other,” said the CEO of Orange.
Matteo Renzi's reaction is possible. The Italian premier, yesterday in Venice for the meeting with François Hollande, replied in the press conference as follows: “Italy is pleased to welcome those who have money to invest and ideas. We are very happy if it is possible to create a pole capable of enhancing Latin and European culture, but let the market do its part. Anyone who has money and plans to create jobs and intriguing ideas should know that Italy is the right place to try and experiment with one's skills".
“In defense – replied Hollande – there could be concentrations between Italian and French companies, even in telecommunications if we want to have weight. There is no future without a strong industry: we must not fear these investments”.
Finally, the ultra-broadband front is on the move. Yesterday evening Vodafone and Wind met the representatives of Metroweb shareholders, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and the F2i fund, as potential customers of the network that could arise from the agreement between Metroweb itself and Telecom Italia.
TODAY BPM AND BANCO POPOLARE ON A MISSION TO FRANKFURT
The positive surprise of the day was the good resilience of the banks, opened by the rebound of Banca Popolare di Milano which rose by 1,8%. Banco Popolare weak, -0,4%. The heads of the two institutions are expected today in the ECB to verify their respective positions on the merger project, currently on standby due to the perplexity of the Authority on some issues relating to governance and the management of NPLs.
Unicredit +0,8%, Intesa +0,8%, MontePaschi -0,3%.
DEL VECCHIO'S PURCHASES SUPPORT LUXOTTICA
In Luxury, Luxottica gained 3,1% after Leonardo Del Vecchio bought 1,51 million Luxottica shares, equal to 0,3% of the capital, for a total investment of approximately 77,8 million euros.
Weak Ferragamo (-0,2%). Sale Moncler (+0,53%): Socgen raised the target price to 17,5 from 16.
