Normal activity returns today after the very long Thanksgiving holiday weekend in the US. Wall Street, open for only half a day on Friday, still closed on a positive note, supported by the technology sector. Attention in these days will be focused on the statements of central bank representatives in view of the next moves, with the Fed, ECB and Boj announcing their decisions next week. Chinese stock markets are positive. European stock markets seen opening in decline. Spotlight on Stellantis after Tavares' resignation and on Unicredit's developments on Banco Bpm. The political situation in France is worrying.
Chinese manufacturing improving
THEChinese manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in five months in November as new orders, including from overseas, surged, leading to a solid increase in production, the Caixin PMI showed. This was partly thanks to government stimulus of Beijing and the push of export, also positively influencing other Asian markets, such as South Korea and Taiwan, where activity has also resumed.
Fears of Trump's tariffs remain
However, fears remain for the duties that Trump wants to impose and many Chinese exporters are trying to get their goods into major markets before the new president takes office on January 20. Last week he said he would impose a 10% tariff on Chinese products to get Beijing to do more to stop the trafficking of chemicals used in the production of fentanyl, after his previous threats to impose tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese products. In the past few hours the Tycoon, on his platform Truth, also warned the BRICS countries, including Russia and China, from creating a their currency or to support another as an alternative to the dollar, otherwise threatening 100% tariffs.
In Japan The PMI, meanwhile, signaled the fastest decline in activity in eight months, as factories cut production due to theweakening demand. The data was slightly offset by official data that showed an acceleration in spending by Japanese companies in plant and machinery in the third quarter.
The data has prompted markets to price in a 65% probability that the BOJ will raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to 0,5%, at its monetary policy meeting on December 18-19.
The TAIEX index of Taipei gains 2% thanks to the push of the companies of thehigh tech, in turn led by the Nasdaq closing higher, +0,8%. The S&P500 rose by 0,6% and hit another record. The stock market Hong Kong is up 0,4%. South Korea's stock market: KOSPI index Alone + 0,2%.
Central banks to take action next week
Markets will be watching central bankers’ statements in the coming days ahead of next week’s rate decisions by the BoJ, ECB and Fed. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave explicit indications of the next monetary policy moves on December 18: interest rate hikes are “coming soon,” given that the economy is performing as expected.
In the US, markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a quarter point at its meeting on December 18, although much will depend on what the ISM surveys and payroll data show this week. The ECB will also make its rate decision on December 12, with expectations for a cut of at least 25 basis points, while a portion of the market (21%) is expecting as much as 50 basis points.
The president's speech is scheduled for 11am today, Christine LagardeAt 21pm that of Christopher Waller, member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve, and at 15pm that of the President of the New York Fed, John Williams.
European stocks seen in negative light. Stellantis in focus after Tavares resigns
European stocks expected to open lower on the basis of the Eurostoxx50 future which is down 0,89%. Frankfurt Dax future -0,3%. Milan's FTSEMIB closed up 0,4% on Friday.
French. Watch out for French government bonds after France’s far-right National Rally raised the risk of a no-confidence vote this week that could topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Whatever happens, budget repair seems unlikely and the deficit could head toward 6% of GDP, making it more expensive for France to finance itself than Greece.
stellantis. The CEO of Stellantis Carlos Tavares has resigned. The company announced in a statement that the board of directors, which met on Sunday, December 1st under the chairmanship of John Elkann, has accepted the CEO's resignation with immediate effect. "The process for the appointment of a new permanent CEO is already underway, managed by a Special Committee of the Board, and will be concluded by the first half of 2025," the statement explains, and "in the meantime, a new Executive Committee chaired by John Elkann will be established." He will therefore be the one to lead the company in this phase. "Stellantis confirms the guidance presented to the financial community on October 31, 2024 in relation to the results of the full year 2024," the statement continues.
Unicredit. Developments are expected on Orcel's move on Banco Bpm. CEO Andrea Orcel said he will wait for the publication of Banco Bpm's results and the outcome of the offer on Anima Holding in March to consider a possible adjustment to the conditions of the offer on Banco Bpm. This was reported by Corriere della Sera Saturday adding that Orcel would be available to guarantee accommodation for the Monte dei Paschi, of which Banco Bpm has 10%. There are preliminary contacts between UniCredit and a group of potential financial advisers for the offer on Banco Bpm, they wrote on Saturday Sole 24 Ore and the Republic citing Mediobanca and Morgan Stanley. No formal mandate, not even from Banco Bpm which could choose Lazard, Citi and Legance for the legal part, they add. Sun 24 Hours also mentions JPMorgan among the possible advisers of UniCredit. Orcel is scheduled to meet with the management of Credit Agricole to discuss partnerships between the two institutions after the takeover bid launched by Piazza Gae Aulenti on Banco Bpm. The Treasury said it was not preparing an emergency decree to circumvent the so-called 'passivity rule' to counter UniCredit's offer on Banco Bpm, denying a rumour published by Financial Times
Team has accepted the request of the Ministry of the Economy and Finance and Retelit to extend the deadline to receive a binding offer for Sparkle to December 16, according to MilanoFinanza, Leonardo's CEO Roberto Cingolani has taken on the role of interim chief M&A, equity investments, industrial plan implementation officer. The company is looking at three cybersecurity firms - Italy's Deas and Britain's Becrypt and Adarga - for a possible acquisition.
Italgas CEO Paolo Gallo said in an interview with la Repubblica on Sunday that the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas does not pose any competition risks in Italy.
Leonardo Secondo MilanFinance, CEO Roberto Cingolani has taken over as interim chief M&A, equity investments, industrial plan implementation officer. The company is eyeing three cybersecurity firms – Italy’s Deas and Britain’s Becrypt and Adarga – for a possible acquisition.
Webuild Several newspapers write that thanks to the funds transferred from the Development and Cohesion Fund to the Ministry of Infrastructure, the financing of the Messina bridge is covered for 14,7 billion euros. The final green light from CIPESS is expected by the end of the year, with work starting in 2025.
Piaggio will no longer produce the Ape Car in Pontedera, which will be built exclusively in India and destined for the Indian and African markets where emissions constraints are less stringent, according to Sunday's newspapers.
