Alitalia's future is a question of percentages. The dossier must be closed by Monday 15 July, the day on which the deadline for submitting expressions of interest will expire. This time, Mise announced on Tuesday 9 July, "there will be no postponements".
Let's start with the certainties: Ferrovie dello Stato and Mef will have the majority of the newco which will control the former flag carrier, exceeding a total of 50% of the capital: indicatively 35% to the Fs, 15% to the Treasury. Who will take that extra step capable of ensuring public scrutiny now seems like a formality. delta airlines, US giant of the skies, should take about 10% of the capital, even if according to rumors the Government has asked the American company to "try even harder", reaching over 15%. In total we are therefore around 60-65% of the capital already committed.
The problem is that there is still a share of 35-40% on the plate, valued at around 300 million euros, which it is not known who to assign. Or rather we know, but the political reason could prevail over the economic one by blowing everything up.
The interest of the Toto group, as well as that of the Colombian entrepreneur German Efromovich, Avianca's majority shareholder, do not fully convince either the companies involved (especially Delta, which is part of an alliance competing with that to which Avianca belongs) or the Mise. Even less is trusted in the intentions and words expressed by Claudio Lotito. Among the various companies that in recent months have been indicated as eligible participants in the consortium that will save Alitalia therefore only Atlantia remains, with which the Government is however engaged in a tug-of-war on the motorway concessions. And this is precisely the main impediment to the success of the operation.
Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio would like to keep the two issues separate, not being willing to give up "punishing" Atlantia - the parent company of Autostrade - for the responsibilities (not yet proven or established) for the collapse of the Morandi Bridge. The M5S has made it one of the bulwarks of its policy and giving in on the issue could become a real electoral boomerang.
Atlantia, for its part, would be evaluating the pros and cons of a possible expression of interest to be presented in extremis by Monday, provided, however, that a credible recovery plan is proposed with certain numbers. Second the Sun 24 Hours, which cites sources close to the Group, the dossier could be examined on Thursday 11 during the board meeting already scheduled, although the issue is not on the agenda.
At the center of interest is not only Atlantia's possible entry into the game, but also any share to be "purchased". The company led by Giovanni Castellucci could take over the entire missing stake (35-40%, we recall) or, according to what he writes Republic, stopping at around 10-15% by entering the game together with Toto, with the remaining shares in the hands of the QuattroR fund. Options, both, to be analyzed in a few days.
Time is running out, the hypotheses, including that relating to a step backwards by Atlantia, are still all in the field and in any case the Government could find itself crushed between the desire to save Alitalia "whatever it takes", the (political) need not to give in on the Atlantia case, and that (economic this time) of making ends meet for everyone, public and private investors.
