The center of gravity of energy demand is shifting decisively towards emerging economies: the growth especially of China, India and the Middle East will determine, between now and 2035, an increase of about a third of global energy consumption.
It is the scenario of 'World Energy Outlook 2013' of the IEA, released in recent days and presented today, in a road show at ENI, by chief economist Fatih Birol. First China, then from 2020 India, will lead the growing importance of Asia in global energy and trade demand. Fossil fuels will remain dominant in meeting global energy needs (76% of primary energy demand in 2035 against 82% in 2011); however, if oil continues to be the main source consumed globally, its share is expected to decrease by 2035 (from 31% to 27%) in favor of other sources.
In particular, natural gas is destined to increase its weight in the energy mix (from 21% in 2011 to 24% in 2035) with an increasing role of unconventional gas. Renewables account for half of the growth in global electricity generation through 2035, with wind and solar making up 45% of the renewables expansion.
The IEA report also provided a scenario on the future of oil prices, which will continue to increase steadily until they reach 128 dollars a barrel in 2035 (in 2012 dollars). “This does not mean we are entering a new era of oil abundance,” because the estimated price of crude supports the development of these new resources. The Middle East, the only large area of cheap oil, confirms itself as the protagonist of the longer-term oil landscape. Over the next 10 years, in fact, the role of OPEC countries in meeting demand will decrease due to increased production from the USA, Canada and Brazil; however, around the mid-2020s, non-OPEC production will begin to decline and Middle Eastern countries will ensure much of the increase in supply.
