When it is said that Italian agriculture must be supported, because it is at the origin of a virtuous and sustainable chain, it is true. When, as in these weeks of health anguish, it is claimed that it has been devastated by the coronavirus, it is half the truth. I the results of two econometric models have shown that the agri-food sector is not, after all, among the sectors most affected by the decline in GDP in recent months. Mysteries of the algorithms that in fact obscure the protests of the agricultural world and the millions of accumulated losses. Not to mention the organic crops, the waste, the lack of manpower in the fields, the latter solved only thanks to the decisive intervention on the regularization of Minister Teresa Bellanova.
A research group – Annalisa Zezza, Roberto Solazzo, Federica Demaria – studied the events of the agricultural world using two well-known calculation models: AGMEMOD and CAPRI. The study "Assessment of the impact on the agri-food sector of the COVID-19 containment measures" was published by the Research Center for Policies and Bioeconomy, CREA.
And i results for the second sector of the Italian economy are far from depressing. We need improvement interventions that politics must put in place, but all in all the situation is not dramatic. Just think, the AGMEMOD system is even used by the European Commission for comparison with other sector studies.
The research arrives at two scenarios. The first from AGMEMOD says that until 2023 there will be a drop in the consumption of apples and milk, while meat, cheese, cereals and derivatives remain stable compared to pre-Covid19 forecasts. The second CAPRI scenario describes a reduction in agricultural and zootechnical income, greater than the hypothesized change in GDP. A small crack. But the summary of it all is that “the Italian agricultural sector seems, however, to better bear the pandemic shock, probably due to the weight covered by fruit and vegetables". It's good to remember that fruit and vegetable companies during the lockdown were at the forefront of protests for not seeing fruit rot and for the lack of manpower. Think of the apple harvest in Trentino Alto Adige or citrus fruits in Southern Italy. These are very evident aspects in the crisis of recent months but not considered in the two models used for the research, the curators warn us. The sense of reality lies in theirs recommendation to the policy to facilitate the access of companies to work for both immigrants and the workforce available from other sectors.
At a systemic level in a situation considered not unfavorable, the research recommends guaranteeing access to food to the most vulnerable sections of the population, to recognize all parts of the agro-food chain as essential, to guarantee the integrity of the products with measures that strengthen traceability, to supervise sanitary and phytosanitary barriers, to avoid price speculation. A useful job, divided between cold optimistic calculations and advice for the future. Let's just remember that in between there are people, companies, rights, jobs
