Last June 2022 theIstat began publishing the first data of 2021 Census of Agriculture announcing that this is the last in the series of decennial censuses, which will be replaced by permanent and sample censuses. This latest ten-year census is of particular importance because it highlights the presence of significant changes underway in the primary sector over the last ten years. The extent of these changes is being discussed both with interventions in magazines such as REA, il Mulino, Terra e vita, and with substantial reports from specialist research centers such as ISMEA and CREA. In all these analytical contributions, the changes taking place are rightly considered as moments in a process of transformation of the "agricultural sector" which is increasingly being characterized as a basic component of the "agroindustrial system”. All this is very different from what happened during the second half of the last century when the publications of census data were for a long time the subject of essays and debates between historians, sociologists and economists who instead considered those data as indicators of the long transformation that affected agriculture as a social reality characterizing the historical processes of change of the entire country. In this regard we can recall the impressive literature that has developed on the long process of exodus from the countryside which, documented by Census data, produced the disappearance of rural society driven by industrialization and the prevalence of cities. We can also recall the literature which gave rise to the theme of the agrarian reform implemented in the decade 1950-60, with the definitive breaking up of the large estates: an event which brought into play economic interests and significant political and social oppositions, giving rise to a area of companies characterized by peasant work and another by paid work. Or, the conferences and essays that in the decade 1990-2000 spoke of "counter-exodus" and "revenge of the countryside" while a widespread process of urbanization was taking place which raised consumption, incomes and the way of life of the countryside albeit at a of heavy overbuilding of the landscape. In essence, through the analysis of the censuses carried out from the 50s to the end of the last century, discussing the methods of the progressive disappearance of rural society in the Italian countryside, the exhaustion of the "agrarian question" was noted as a characterizing fact of a long period historian of the Italian agricultural world.
Today, as we said, the various publications and reflections that discuss the data of the latest Censuses no longer reflect the characteristics of a changing rural society. The latter no longer exists, few traces remain, destined to become extinct in the coming years or to remain as islands of testimony. Although we must always keep in mind the weight and role that agriculture maintains in characterizing the cultural profile of the various territories of the country, in defining their landscapes, in expressing a growing need for climate and environmental protection.
The current specialist literature, therefore, rightly refers to an agriculture which, albeit with internal differences, is experiencing an intense process of productive restructuring which is gradually leading it to emerge as a fundamental and irreplaceable component of the national "agro-industrial system". A "system" that has very important positions in the country's trade balance and which competes with France and Germany for the top positions in Europe. A "system" that has a weight on the added value of the entire economy equal to 15,2% (if we consider the agricultural production produced and transformed together with the related industries including the transport, intermediation and distribution activities made necessary). A "system" made up of numerous supply chains which is significantly monitored continuously by the Studies and Research Department of Intesa San Paolo through the continuous publication of reports on the innovative processes and results of all its components. A "system" within which the agriculture component, while accounting for 11,2% of the total added value, is experiencing profound changes. Among these we wish to refer here to two particularly significant ones, well highlighted in the latest Census and in the corresponding analyzes produced. The first concerns the sharp decrease in the number of farms, the corresponding increase in average size and the weight that larger companies are assuming. The second refers to the characteristics of dynamism that the share, which is still small, is taking on companies run by young people.
As regards the change relating to the number of agricultural companies, first of all there has been a marked disappearance: they have more than halved (-53%) in the last twenty years, going from 2,4 to 1.1 million. The strong reduction in the number of companies, which took place in the face of a modest decrease in the agricultural area used, led to a doubling of the average size of the company (from 5,5 to 11,1ha. between 2000 and 2020), to a strong decrease of very small companies (-51,2% those up to 0.99ha) compared to the growth of large ones (+13,4% above 50ha). The latter with 4,5% of the number (only 2,8% in 2010) today constitute the central production body of the sector, representing 47,5% of the surface area (2010% in 41,7). In addition to the growth in size, there has been a notable movement in the acquisition of land which has led to a significant decrease in companies managed exclusively by property, against a strong increase in those made up of land rented only or owned and rented or in ownership and free use. That is, there is an evolution towards more structured management forms, also confirmed by a significant increase in paid labor compared to a marked decrease in family labor.
Agricultural companies: the management structure changes with a growing weight of young people
Within the evolutionary process relating to the size and forms of management, as mentioned, the Census highlighted a second aspect to take into consideration: the characteristics that companies managed by young people are taking on. These, on the one hand, have reduced in number (-43,8%) especially in Noon, on the other hand they have undergone a significant modernization process. These are 105 thousand companies that manage almost 2 million hectares of land (15,3% of the total UAA). They reached an average size of 18,3 ha. (compared to 9 ha. of companies led by "non-young people"). They rent 60% of their surface area. They have a higher level of education: 60% are managed by high school graduates and 19% by graduates, while among managers over 40 years of age, middle school and elementary school qualifications prevail. They have a share of companies that market above 71% and are characterized by a greater propensity for cooperation. A fifth of their number adopt organic cultivation methods and are more computerized and open to innovation. For 12% (compared to 5% of companies over 40 years old) they carry out a diversification of production activities with agritourism, first transformation of products, agricultural services for other companies, energy production from renewable sources. Companies managed by young people are still a limited reality but, like larger companies, attentive to modernization and, above all, multi-activity. A reality that presumably will find further space in the near future taking into account the still very high level of seniority: 57% of farm managers are over 60 years old and 23% are over seventy-five.
Agriculture: medium-large companies prevail but the disparities between Centre-North and South remain strong
To conclude. The photographs left by the last census, and in particular those we have highlighted, speak of an agriculture that is experiencing an accelerated process of restructuring. We are moving towards the prevalence of medium-large companies (over 20ha) which with 12% of the number manage almost 70% of the agricultural area. There is no shortage of problems. We haven't talked about it but the process is not territorially homogeneous and the disparities between the Centre-North and the South are still strong, in the sense that the southern part proceeds much more slowly. The modernization of management techniques still has ample space to cover; we are still behind, for example, compared to the situation in France or Germany, but there is no doubt that a process of rapprochement has begun. The data says that the road ahead for full modernization is not short. Whether and how it will be followed will depend greatly on national political choices on issues such as supporting technological innovation, supporting the young workforce, the development of Southern Italy, attention to migratory flows, and the control of climate and environmental factors. , to protect the quality of production. Therefore, there is still a lot to do, but in the meantime the last of the ten-year censuses tells us that Italian agriculture, as a component of a productive "system" which has a significant impact on the national economy, is not a sector in crisis, but a reality that expresses a great need for policies to support its modernization process.
°°°°The author is President of the Manlio Rossi Doria Economic and Social Research Center of the Roma Tre University and President of the Romaeuropa Foundation