Growth in remittances, demographic trends, internal conflicts, proprietary management of political power and above all an economy still far from the road to sustainable development. Several factors suggest that, in the next few years, migrations from Africa to Europe will only increase. Romano Prodi spoke about it today, author of a lectio magistralis entitled "The dynamics of development in the African continent" in the Capitoline office of Sioi (Italian Society for International Organization).
AFRICAN RENAISSANCE? NO, FERMENTATION
"In the last 10 years, Africa has grown more than the average of the other continents - said the Professor, who has chaired the UN-African Union working group on peacekeeping missions on the continent since 2008 -, but today the incidence of African GDP on the world figure it is equal to that of 1980. It is therefore not correct to speak of an 'African renaissance', as many do. I would rather say that it is a good fermentation. Africa has 54 countries and one billion inhabitants, but to date only Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia, as well as South Africa, have a relatively autonomous economic structure. The African Union tries to improve the situation but has little room for action”.
Africa's isolation meant that the continent was less affected than the others by the 2008 crisis, "but the industrial level is still rather low - continued Prodi - and the technological level remains incomparable with respect to the rest of the world". On the public accounts front, "in various African countries the debt-GDP ratio is good, but inflation is often out of control, because the deficit is adjusted by acting on the currency".
Africa has therefore missed the "Millennium Development Goals", objectives set by the United Nations which aimed above all at reducing poverty: "Today 41-42% of the population achieves a per capita income of at least 4 dollars a day - he continued the former Premier – but the majority still live in absolute poverty. Growth, in fact, is unequal: it touches the middle class quite a bit, the upper class a lot and not at all the lower class”.
SUB-SAHARAN POPULATION GROWTH
On the other hand, in recent years in Africa there has been a sharp reduction in illiteracy and the proportion of those completing primary education has reached 82-83 percent. “Literacy, together with the improvement of hygienic-sanitary standards – explained the Professor – has produced a generalized drop in infant mortality. The birth rate, on the other hand (despite having dropped in the Mediterranean area) has remained stable in sub-Saharan Africa, where the median age is now 18, against 24 in the north of the continent, 37 in the USA, 41 in Europe and 46/47 of Italy".
The population is therefore destined to grow and, according to Prodi, “it will be pushed towards emigration, barring an unexpected development for the next few years. Faced with the inability to feed themselves, people are willing to face anything. Not to mention that the remittances sent to Africa by emigrants have recently exceeded foreign aid: an enormous change, which will further encourage migration".
INTERNAL CONFLICTS AND POWER MANAGEMENT
As for conflicts, "their number has decreased and they have become increasingly internal to the countries, i.e. they are not produced directly by the colonial powers, but are affected by that legacy and often prove to be even bloodier". In most cases, continued the Professor, "internal conflicts are generated by the people in power, who want to change the Constitution to stay in power. It is a concept of ownership of power that has never been eradicated: first it was linked to coups, now to elections”.
RELATIONS WITH CHINA
Another feature of the African economy is “very low agricultural productivity – underlined Prodi –, which is one third of that of China. This has a political consequence, namely the attraction of China (where 7% of the plowed lands and 20% of the world's population are located) towards Africa. The Beijing authorities are forced to import food, energy and raw materials and are the only ones to have pursued a truly continental policy with Africa, establishing relations with 50-51 countries out of 54. Neither Europe nor the USA, areas from which foreign direct investments have recently increased, however, a terrain on which China now has competition on African soil. Many investments concern infrastructures, which however are still insufficient”.
Basically, “defining it as a continent with great hopes seems right to me – concluded Prodi –, but it will not be easy to achieve them, above all as long as this political fragmentation and these governance problems remain. Also because I don't think Chinese politics will be able to continue like this indefinitely".
