In Afghanistan the advance of the Taliban continues, which in the last week, taking advantage of the US withdrawal, have reconquered 10 provincial capitals. The latest city to fall was Ghazni, just 150 kilometers from Kabul. The former sharia regime is recovering faster than expected and the capital is now within reach: according to American intelligence, it could fall in less than three months. But is it really inevitable? And most importantly, what can happen next? We asked Stefano Silvestri, former president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (of which he is now scientific adviser), and foreign policy consultant for various Italian governments.
Doctor Silvestri, is the return of the Taliban and the sharia an inevitable destiny for Afghanistan?
«It is rather probable that at this point the Taliban will regain most of the positions they had at the beginning of the conflict, ie the south of the country and probably Kabul. This obviously means a return to the sharia regime in these areas and a backward leap of the whole of Afghanistan towards tribalism. In fact, it is likely that the Taliban will not manage to control the whole country: the northern and western areas should remain in the hands of other ethnic groups, such as Tajiks, Hazaris and Turkmens".
So is the war in Afghanistan likely to continue as an ethnic conflict?
"Yes. The Taliban have the advantage of controlling much of the opium trade, which is centered around the Kanadahar area, and therefore have more money and better relations with organized crime. Meanwhile, in the reconquered territories, it is probable that a series of vendettas and repressions will begin against those they consider traitors to their ideology".
And will the international community stand by and watch?
"At this stage, yes. But if the Taliban make the mistake of transforming Afghanistan back into the sanctuary of the great movements of international terrorism - from what remains of Al Qaeda to Isis, but not only - there must be a reaction from the international community, even with the use of force".
Did the United States really not foresee what would happen with its withdrawal?
«The point is that the maintenance of this war had by then become not only extremely expensive, but also very unpopular, especially since there was no possibility of concluding the conflict. In reality, the mistake was to make a war that was initially against terrorism (Al Qaeda and whoever covered it) evolve into a conflict to change the face of society, to transform Afghanistan into a more or less democratic country and westernized. But epochal change cannot be ensured by force of arms and in a relatively short period of time. If we had been willing to stay in Afghanistan for a couple of centuries, maybe… So the mistake was strategic and led to a political but not a military defeat».
Meanwhile, Europeans are concerned about the possible arrival of tens of thousands of individuals who should be welcomed as refugees. What do you think?
“Since we were the ones who went to Afghanistan and stayed there all these years, we will have to resign ourselves to the idea that now these refugees have every right to come to us. First we guaranteed them a way out of tribalism and now we are leaving them in the hands of that same reality, which threatens the lives of many people. It seems to me inevitable that we will have to expect a certain share of refugees, although I don't think it is a large number, because the majority of Afghans are unwilling or unable to leave the country. In reality, a small part of the urban elites will flee and probably a few people who have worked for us as security agents, local agents, service personnel…».
What is the link between the Taliban and China?
“Very underground. It is clear that there is no ideological or religious affinity between the two parties: on the contrary, China represses everything that has to do with political or religious Muslim organizations, as happened in regions with a Uyghur majority. However, China is certainly interested in increasing its weight in Asia and Afghanistan is a good channel of penetration for the new Silk Road towards the Middle East, ensuring terrestrial communications with Pakistan and Iran, as well as with the former republics Asian Soviets".
What are the balance of forces on this direction?
«Beijing already has a strong presence in Pakistan (where it manages ports), has conflicting relations with India (which is also in conflict with Pakistan) and is increasingly interested in establishing a relationship with Iran, which already today it buys most of the oil. For its part, Iran borders Afghanistan and has strong interests in the Herat region, in the western part of the country. They speak Farsi, the Iranian language there."
So would an alliance between the Chinese and the Taliban make geopolitical sense?
«Yes, but the fact remains that there is no affinity between the two regimes, so it would be a realpolitik operation. In any case, we are in the field of hypotheses: it is not said that it works. Indeed, I have my doubts that a Taliban regime, beyond short-term agreements, is willing to open up to Chinese penetration".
