“Risparmio al Futuro: 2033 target” portfolio invests in global macro-trends
La financial crisis and media often, these days, they envelop us in a shadow of pessimism. This is also reflected in ours investment choices. I understand the fears, but we mustn't get depressed, the world certainly won't end here. We live in an immense complex and dynamic system (I mean in the mathematical sense of the term) where everything is constantly changing, it has always been like this and it will still be like this.
Think about it: the economic geography e policy of our planet evolves, new tendencies continually obscure the old ones, the social structure changes, the tech changes lifestyles within a few years. Suffice it to mention the diffusion of smartphones and tablets in the last 5-6 years: from consumer goods for a few, they have turned into… bodily appendages for the majority of people. How many postcards have you sent in the last year? And how many messages via Whatsapp in the last 24 hours?
In the image (click to enlarge) the diagram showing the evolution of computers in terms of cost and power.
The goal of this post is to show you how interesting it can be invest by focusing on the great trends of our planet, or on how it will be the world in 20 years. What the Advise Only team offers you is a reasoned investment based on some major social, demographic and economic trendsrelated to the changes taking place on Earth.
Let's start with some obvious trends (those that in statistics are called "secular trends") and, from there, we try to identify the investment ideas associated.
1. Retirement of the “Baby Boomers” (born in the 50s). In Europe and the USA, a considerable mass of individuals is approaching retirement (without adequate generational turnover). In our opinion, two sectors will have to face a growing demand for new elders: the sector Healthcare Logistics, related to health services, and the related services sector e fun. Although the economic crisis is currently undermining this trend, 10-15 years from now it is reasonable to think that we are in a favorable or at least normalized economic cycle.
2. Development of Emerging Countries. Such economies will have to aim for one sustainable growth over time: this will require, among other things, higher expenses in infrastructureoften still lacking.
3. Middle class growth in Asia (Japan excluded). The middle class is rapidly expanding in countries like China; this will probably lead to an increase in the so-called discretionary consumption (e.g. cars, motorcycles, technological equipment).
4. Technological development. Technological innovation is continuous and leads to the birth of numerous new businesses. The theme of digital development it is also linked to the broader one associated with emerging countries and the growth of the middle class within them. This macro-trend includes the one related to raw material of the future, which are used, for example, in high-tech products, in the automotive industry, in wind turbines and in photovoltaic systems.
5. Opportunities in the “Private Equity” sector. The economic crisisforces companies to transform, innovating, becoming more competitive and finding new outlet markets. Furthermore, the need to create employment drives the creation of new businesses (in this direction, for example, are the incentive measures for the "start-up" sector in Europe).
6. Defense of common goods such as water and the environment. The Earth's resources are not infinite and the attention towards a model of sustainable economic development it is always greater. Themes like the respect for the environment andsocial equity they will probably be a field of comparison for the future. For example, the growing need for water by Emerging Countries and the impact of climate change on them remain topics of particular interest.
Based on these ideas we at Advise Only have thought of concrete investment strategies, which merged into a portfolio called Savings for the future: 2033 target, shared in our Community since April and also published in the monthly F.
It is a wallet with a "minimum denomination" of approx € 1.000, which lends itself so much to an investment with a single payment (PIC), as for gradual investment, with a savings plan (PAC).
I repeat: this portfolio looks at long period. Consistent with this time horizon, it presents a medium to high financial risk which makes it suitable for the investment of a small fraction of its assets (so that you don't have a significant impact on your financial stability if these investment ideas turn out to be wrong). Matter of caution.
If you are curious, all you have to do is go to adviseonly.com and find out the details of the portfolio Saving for the future: goal 2033. You will be able to analyze the composition, become a follower and follow daily reports on risk, performance and other analysis and monitoring tools.
