Italy has a growth problem, is undeniable and has been reiterated by virtually everyone. So let's try to take a look at the growth rates (or rather, the decrease) of our country, to understand how serious the patient is. To do this, we use real per capita GDP, which is often used as an indicator of a country's level of income and well-being: although it cannot be considered an exhaustive measure of economic well-being (because some aspects of the effective life of families), can at least give an idea.
The graph represents the real Italian per capita income, ie at constant prices, from 1980 to today (ie looking only at the growth of the quantities produced, without the "pollution" of inflation). The dotted line represents the estimate of its performance according to the IMF's (April) forecasts for the period from 2014 to 2018. Will these forecasts come true? “We will only know by living…”
Let's analyze the graph. You will notice two setbacks: the first coincides with the 1992 crisis, the second goes from 2007 to today, with a small rebound in 2010. The main difference is that after 1992 the economy restarted immediately.
Another rather interesting observation: the level of per capita income at the end of this year is about the same as it was in 1997 and only in 2017 should Italians' standard of living return to 1999 levels (assuming IMF estimates as correct).
In short, on balance, it would seem like 18 lost years.
The latest data from Europe shows a hint of recovery, at least as regards the "core" countries of the Eurozone, with France and Germany having officially come out of the recession. If these economies were to return to playing the role of "locomotives", we can place confidence in the growth estimates of the Monetary Fund. But let's keep our feet on the ground and let's not delude ourselves more than necessary, the road is still long and there are many problems to be solved.
