June has just ended and the performance of world stock exchanges in the last two months has been strongly influenced by the return of therisk aversion
While most of the risks we started the year with are still on the table, our proprietary systemic risk indicator tells us that contagion risk has actually decreased.
Overall the stock valuations around the world they continue to be on average quite good, with price/earnings ratios in many cases still low and good dividends (especially when compared to the yield on the bonds of countries considered more "safe").
It is worth investing in stocks. But which ones?
At this point we re-propose our sectoral graph as a tool for orientation which, using the classic approach* value e momentum already used for the analysis of equity investments in the various countries, it considers the ten sectors worldwide (according to the MSCI GICS classification) and analyzes them according to the two quantities taken into consideration:
. le assessments, i.e. the market value with respect to the fundamentals, summarized by the price/earnings ratio (also known as "Price/Earnings" or P/E, which we calculate following the method of the legendary Graham & Dodd, trying to "clean up" the figure from economic cycle, as well as taking into account the structural differences between sectors);
. the "momentum", ie the momentum of the market, its inertial force, represented by historical performances over 12 months.
What has changed since December 2012?
1. First, i Consumer Staples (Consumer goods and basic necessities) went around our graph going from the most interesting quadrant (top left) to the worst (bottom right);
2. i Technology and Materials they lost some momentum;
3. Utilities valuations have become more affordable.
In conclusion, the most attractive sectors remain the Industrials andHealth Care(Healthcare): "they cost" relatively little and have a good "momentum”, which basically means that there is a purchasing trend. The most "popular" remain i Consumer Discretionary (Goods and services non-essential goods and services) and i Financials, while for those who want to risk more (bottom left quadrant), there are those with little "momentum” that is, most disgraced, but presenting the best evaluations (Energy, Materials, Utilities, Telecome Technology).
