Goodbye BRICS, it's time to ICASA. It was known for some time that Brazil, Russia, China, India and (above all) South Africa were no longer driving global growth, but the new acronym suggests it Ezra Greenberg, McKinsey senior expert, who spoke on the occasion of the Milan Savings Hall to a panel organized by Eurizon Capital, entitled "Growing between uncertainties and technological innovation: how to read global changes".
The new drivers of global growth are therefore, according to Greenberg, India, China, Africa (considered as a whole of the continent) and South-East Asia, great news that undermines Brazil and Russia from the scenarios that count, or rather that they arouse the greatest interest from the markets: “Data in hand – said the McKinsey expert – it will still be China that will drag the planet's economy: its GDP will grow by 6,7 .2027 trillion dollars. In terms of percentage of annual growth, however, it will be overtaken by India, which between now and 6,5 will have a CAGR of 5,2% against XNUMX% in Beijing".
On the other hand, the African continent as a whole will bring the growth trends of what is now the leading global economy closer together and which is announcing a battle in the WTO against the protectionist policies decided by US President Donald Trump in these days: the "black" continent will grow by 4,6% each year and South-East Asia by 4,2%. The decayed Brazil only by 1,2% and Russia by 2,5%.
But what will be the paradigms of the new growth of the global economy? “I'm talking about a new narrative of progress – explains Greenberg -. If we stop to observe the critical issues, i.e. Brexit, the trade crisis between the US and China and international terrorism, one might think we are going in the wrong direction. Instead, other indicators tell us that the direction is the right one, just analyze the evolution of some data from 1800 to today: there are fewer homicides, fewer diseases, more literacy (we went from 19% in 1820 to 83% in 2010, in the world), more wealth”.
Per capita GDP, according to McKinsey, is estimated to have grown by 2,2% in the five-year period 2012-2017, while forecasts indicate a +2,5% for the years from 2018 to 2022. "Globalization is said to be dead , but in reality globalization is us, it is people. In the world today there are 5 million students studying abroad, 13 million students studying online, 44 million cross-border workers, 244 million people who have moved to work in another country, 361 million consumers buying foreign products online, 429 million travellers, almost a billion people registered on social networks with at least one foreign contact”.
However, there are critical issues. Among these, during his brief speech at the Milan Savings Fair, Mc Kinsey's analyst above all identified those relating to the lack of natural resources and the new social pact, in times of inequalities and distrust of the system. In fact, in 2050 the world population will reach 10 billion people, and 70% of these people will live in urban areas: "The demand for water will rise five times from the current one, and to feed everyone, agricultural production will have to grow by 60% compared to that of 2007".
And then, it will be necessary to design a new social model, which once again speaks of intergenerational mobility and the middle class. “In 1940, in the USA, over 90% of workers earned more than their parents. Today this percentage has dropped well below 50%," explains Greenberg. Above all, what is worrying is the crisis of the so-called middle class, in America but not only: in the period 1993-2010, high-wage occupations in the USA grew less than low-wage ones (2,9% against 3%). But at least both have grown, unlike middle-paying employment which has shown a drop of 6% overseas and 10% in Europe.
This has led to the current climate of total distrust of the population around the world towards the system: according to the Edelmen Trust Barometer, only 15% of those interviewed think that the system works, 32% are uncertain while 53% report a sense of injustice, lack of hope and trust, need for change. Top managers are at an all-time low for transmitted trust, only 37%, which is in any case a higher figure than that of politicians: only 29% of the world's population believes that governments are credible.
