MONTI SIGNS THE GOLDEN RULE: NO MORE DEFICITS. PIAZZA AFFARI PRESENTS THE ACCOUNT TO UNIPOL-FONSAI
White smoke. Yesterday evening in Brussels 25 countries of the European Union have signed the new treaty on Fiscal Union which provides for stricter constraints on budgets with the introduction of the so-called "golden rules" (including the constraint of a balanced budget). Great Britain and the Czech Republic did not vote. Further defections were feared later in the day, but eventually Poland and Sweden complied.
It is a great victory for Mrs Merkel, comments the Financial Times interpreting English moods. In particular, the City newspaper is now forecasting the pressure on Germany by the Keynesian wing ranging from the Monetary Fund to Mario Monti to accelerate measures on growth. But, for reasons of electoral convenience, Nicolas Sarkozy approached Frau Merkel.
During the summit was also reached a agreement on growth and employment as announced by the president of the EU Council, Herman Van Rompuyon his Twitter profile. And on this document there is also the yes of London, while - for reasons of internal politics - Sweden has withdrawn, whose premier leads a minority government. The definitive version of the treaty establishing the permanent fund for financial stability in the Eurozone, the European Stability Mechanism, should be defined today, with an overall intervention capacity of 940 billion.
Ma the agreement on the fiscal compact does not close the issue of sovereign debt. Indeed, even before the Greece chapter closes (today, perhaps, the signing) the tragedy of Lisbon breaks out: the market, judging by the CDS, gives 71% the probability that Portugal will have to move towards default. According to CMA data, the cost of insuring 10 million dollars of Portuguese sovereign debt over the next five years has shot up to 3,95 million dollars, to be paid in advance, plus another 100.000 dollars to be paid annually. Portuguese 26-year yields shot up 15,54 bps to a ceiling of 21,44% while the 104-year traded at 1.420%, an increase of 16 points. The spread between Portuguese bonds and the German bund widens to XNUMX points and the yield on the Portuguese XNUMX-year bond rises to a record XNUMX%. The country's credit default swaps also rose sharply.
Satisfies but does not excite the outcome of theItalian auction. In order to confirm the drop in yields, the Treasury had to give up its ambition to place all the bonds it wanted. 3,57 billion BTPs were placed (the maximum target was 4 billion) with a maturity of 2017 and a yield of 5,39%. Also placed 2 billion Btp maturing in 2022 with a yield of 6,08% and 1,85 billion Btp maturing in 2016 and 2021 (the target was 2 billion). The yield of the 10-year BTP on the secondary market recorded an increase in yields of 23 basis points to 6,089%, while the 5-year one is at 5,10% (+32 basis points). Lo spread it remains above 430 bp.
After Fitch another negative note coming from a rating agency. Moody's estimates that the Salva-Italia decree "will reduce household disposable income" and the Italian economy will register a 1% drop in GDP in 2012, while the unemployment rate in Italy will mark an average increase to 8,8% in 2012 from an average of 8,2% in 2011. According to Moody's, the rise in unemployment will also lead to an increase in arrears rates in the real estate market.
RECORD JANUARY FOR BRIC CURRENCIES. US 5-YEAR T BOND RETURNS 0,72%
The US stock market closed almost unchanged after a negative session (Dow Jones -0,05% S&P -0,3% Nasdaq -0,16%) in the wake of fears for the debt situation of the Union. The 5-year TBond hit a new low with a yield of 0,72%. The euro is weak against the dollar at 1,3131 from 1,315 on Friday night. Since the beginning of 2012, however, the dollar has weakened by 1.%% against the yen and the euro. But the effect of the indications coming from the Fed was felt above all with regard to the currencies of emerging countries: Brazilian real and Russian ruble up 6%, the Indian rupee and the Mexican peso are up 7% since the beginning of January.
Positive session for Asian squares. Thanks also to the Japanese GDP + 4% in December, more than forecasts. But the long ong +0,2% and India +0,48% did better than the Japanese index +1% on the wave of the stimulus plan for the economy launched by Manmohan Singh.
Sales are raining, not unexpectedly, on new maxi insurance center branded Unipol-Fonsai. The reduction punishes the Ligresti group in particular: Fonsai in the end it leaves 8,3% on the ground in the wake of the news on the 2011 losses, much worse than the 925 million red already announced, which will be met with the increase from 1,1 billion. Down, after the initial positive reaction, too Unipol -3,8% which will bear the increase from 400 million in Premafin -22% which will thus pass under the control of Unipol while the Ligresti will remain, for the time being, with a stake in the order of 10%. The announcement didn't do well for the creditors of the Ligresti group either, that is Mediobanca -4,66% ed Unicredit -2,36%, probably the most benefited by a deal that defuses the debt bomb of the Sicilian entrepreneur.
On the eve of the board meeting, the first after the successful outcome of the capital increase, Unicredit it yields 2,36% after a long up and down throughout the session. This morning Citigroup raised the target price to 4,65 euros from 4 euros, the recommendation remains buy. Intesa Sanpaolo -2,21% Ubi -3,36%. Banco Popolare plummeted in the afternoon by 5,5% closely followed by Pop Bank. Me -5,92%.
In the bank in Piazza Meda Andrea Bonomi has an extra Arc. This is the acronym of the Association for the Renewal and Strengthening of Cooperation, or rather the association of Bpm executives and employees that intends to challenge the power of the Friends of Bpm, Bonomi's former allies. In fact, the moment for the decisive duel between the old Bpm soul and the reality that emerged with the capital increase, the appointment of Bonomi as chairman of the management board and the arrival of the CEO seems to have arrived. Peter Montani. The object of the dispute is the resignation of the ex dg Enzo Chiesa who, in exchange for his resignation, asked for a (too) substantial severance pay and indemnity on past transactions, starting with the scandalous issue of the convertible.
Black seat for the big French banks BNP Paribas, Societe Generale e Credit Agricole who closed the day with reductions of between 6 and 7 per cent on the wave of the announcement that Sarkozy intends to proceed with the establishment of a tax on financial transactions even without the consent of other countries. Generali closes down 1,69%. Lottomatica + 1,3% Pirelli +0,64% , Impregile it +1,07% ed Enel +0,06% are the earnings of assets in the main basket +0,06.
Title unchanged Fiat -1,04% on the eve of the board meeting on the 2011 accounts set for Wednesday. Among the new features, there is also the illustration of the union accounts, excluding the CGIL. Heavy bloodletting of Finmeccanica below 6,69%.
