There is no breathing space for the banking sector. This can be seen from the data published by the ABI, in its Afo 2011-2013 report, which show a weak growth in assets against an ever-low profitability.
The Roe (Return on equity) index is about to touch the historic low of 0,3%, although it remains marginally positive. The index is expected to grow in the next few years but it is unlikely that it will return to pre-crisis levels immediately. The uncertainties due to the financial crisis also weigh on banks' profitability forecasts for the future. In the period 2011-2013 the value of provisions will be 54 billion.
As far as the intermediation margin is concerned, the ABI expects a further contraction in 2011 which will be followed by a growth of 4% in the three years taken into consideration. Again, 2013 will not be the year in which banks will be able to return to pre-crisis levels. The loss compared to before the crisis in terms of revenues, at the end of the period under consideration, will be 8 billion. Over the next two years, banks will be engaged in intense capitalization activity in a scenario that sees a slow and gradual decrease in the spread.
