Donald Trump blew out his first candle yesterday to celebrate one year at the White House in the Forbidden City, as a guest of Xi Jingping. Today, meanwhile, Chinese is spoken on Wall Street. The web giant Tencent has announced the purchase of 12% of Snap, taking advantage of the collapse of the share of the social network (-14,6%), in free fall among teenagers. And a subsidiary of Tencent itself, the search engine Sogou, will today launch its IPO on Wall Street.
The Chinese government, which prohibits the landing of Facebook in the country, has become the first advertiser of the social network in Asia. Having set aside the bellicose intentions against Beijing, the US president, escorted to the Chinese capital by about thirty managers, will witness the ratification of a barrage of commercial agreements (30 billion dollars for Boeing alone). Wall Street and the Asian markets respond with new records, despite difficulties on the way to the tax reform wanted by Trump, in a crisis of consensus at home.
Europe is more cautious, committed to digesting quarterly reports and held back by various local crises, from Spain to Brexit. The stain that disturbs the picture, however, comes from Valtellina, already a strong area of the "territorial banks" at the time when the successes of the Italian way of banking were celebrated. The collapse of Creval, accompanied by the drastic cleaning up of non-performing loans, signals that some Italian banks are still in the tunnel of the crisis. But the flagships, Intesa and Unicredit in the lead, have now taken off: the rest, we hope, will follow.
NIKKEI DOWN IN TOKYO
Meteo Borsa signals a shower of primates this morning. Tokyo Stocks ended trading lower on Thursday, erasing gains from the morning session on the back of a strengthening yen, while Toshiba stock fell into the red following mid-year results that posted a net loss of 49,8, XNUMX billion yen while confirming the annual forecasts.
The Nikkei index fell by 0,2%, to 22.868,71 points (-45,11 points), after gaining up to 2% during the morning and abruptly exceeding the symbolic threshold of 23.000 points. The Topix index fell by 0,25%, to 1.813,11 points (-4,49 points). Industrial conglomerate Toshiba saw its share price fall 2,49% to 313 yen after announcing first-half results.
The Asia Pacific index rose sharply, marking a new high since 2007. Hong Kong responded with an increase of more than 1%. The run of China Literature continues (+3,1%), the newest subsidiary of Tencent which made its debut on the list on Tuesday with an increase of 86%. The gains of the Chinese and Seoul Stock Exchanges were more modest (+0,1%).
THE ANTITRUST: YES TO TIME WARNER-ATT, IF CNN IS ASSIGNED
Another triple record last night on Wall Street. The Dow Jones (+0,03%) and the Standard & Poor's 500 (+0,14%) are in positive ground. Best of all the Nasdaq (+0,32%). The new brilliant performance of Apple is pushing the technological stock upwards: +0,82%, for a total capitalization of 905 billion dollars. Optimism is growing on the market response to the iPhone X. The smartphone, on sale for $999 (plus options) has, according to IHS Markit, a production cost of $370.
The news on the midrange front continues. After the news of the negotiations between Rupert Murdoch's XXI Century Fox and Walt Disney, the Antitrust ultimatum rains down on the market: the billionaire merger between AT&T and Time Warner will only be authorized if CNN, the TV network most disliked by Trump, is sold.
The currency market was little moved: the euro/dollar cross at 1,1594. Oil is back on the rise, without jerks: Brent at 63m65 dollars, Wti at 57,92. In Piazza Affari both Eni and Tenaris are flat.
EUROPE MARKS PACE, MILAN -0,57%
Another mixed session for European lists, in the absence of strong upward or downward signals. The exception is Piazza Affari, under pressure from the new banking emergency, but recovering in the final thanks to the signals arriving from the European Parliament on the Npl front. The Ftse Mib index stops at 22.831 points, down by 0,57%. Positive ground in London (+0,22%); Frankfurt +0,02%. Red list in Paris (-0,17%), held back by the crash of Crédit Agricole (-3,16% after the accounts). The decline in Madrid slows down (-0,13%). Spanish industrial production in September shows the highest annual increase since August 2016, with a figure higher than market expectations. The growth is 3,4%. We need to understand, however, how much the Catalan crisis has affected.
A SHOW OF GOVERNMENT BONDS ARRIVES, THE BTP ITALIA ON MONDAY
Negative closure for the bond market, with yields and spreads recovering slightly from the lows, interrupting the rally that had lasted since the European Central Bank's meeting almost two weeks ago. The yield on the Italian 1,74-year bond settled at 1,71% from 138% at the end of Tuesday's session. The yield differential with the similar maturity of the Bund, which dropped to 141 basis points on the eve, ended the session at XNUMX basis points.
Busy days ahead for Italian sovereign debt securities. We start tomorrow with the offer of 5,5 billion BOTs over 12 months. Also tomorrow, the Treasury will communicate the minimum coupon of the new Btp Italia, expiring in November 2023, indexed to inflation, which will be placed starting Monday. According to an operator, it should settle in the 0,20-0,23% area. The issue aimed initially at retail customers, with a final window for institutional customers, will be supported by a huge amount of repayments, around 18 billion, for the November 2017 Btp Italia expiry. On Monday 13 the Ministry of the Economy it will also make available between 4,5 and 6 billion euros in 3, 7 and 15-year BTPs at the mid-month auction.
CREVAL INCREASE RAISES THE STORM: -29%
The day, although characterized by numerous quarterly reports, was dominated by the collapse of Credito Valtellinese, which caused tensions to re-explode on the Italian banking system, grappling with the problem of non-performing loans. But in the evening a lifesaver arrived from Brussels: the legal office of the European Parliament established that it is not up to the Supervision of the ECB to adopt the Addendum of non-performing loans or to dictate general rules valid for all banks. Thus the threat of the deadline of January 1 to adapt to the rules desired by President Danièle Nouy is removed. In the end, the banking index lost 0,32%, doing worse than the European sector -0,2%).
Creval stock dropped 29% after several suspensions. The collapse occurred after the presentation of the accounts for the first nine months of 2017, closed with a net loss of 402,62 million euros due to an initial cleanup operation. The institute has put in the pipeline a capital increase of 700 million euros to eliminate non-performing loans.
“Almost all of our NPLs – said the president Mirio Fiordi – are linked to SMEs that went badly during the crisis, not from money given to the first passerby on the street or to friends of friends. When it is said in conferences that Italy has lost 25% of its manufacturing capacity and 10 points of GDP, it means this”.
Equita sim cut the target price on the Creval from 3,3 euro to 2,3 euro; the experts have confirmed the indication to keep the shares in the portfolio. Intermonte was on the same wavelength, which cut its target price from 4,1 euros to 2,15 euros while maintaining a neutral opinion.
THE FLOOD EXTENDS TO THE FORMER POPULARI
The wave triggered by the Lombard bank (capitalization of less than 300 million) has invested the former Popolari, also struggling with the Npl emergency. Definitely negative performances for Banco Bpm (-7,53%) and for Bper (-4,38%; “We don't need capital injections” said the CEO Alessandro Vandelli). Minus sign also for Ubi Banca (-2,96%): Capital Management increased its short position on the bank from 1,14% to 1,21%. Marshall Wace also increased the "short" on the institute, bringing it from 2,61% to 2,73%.
Bad day also for Monte Paschi (-4,76%). After the quarterly results were released, Credit Suisse analysts confirmed the target price of 4,28 euros and the "Underperform" rating.
SACCOMANNI ARRIVES IN UNICREDIT
Plus sign instead for the Bigs. Unicredit (+0,74%) has co-opted Fabrizio Saccomanni to the board, destined to succeed the president Giuseppe Vita. Norges Bank has become one of the largest shareholders of the institution with a stake of 3,044% of the capital.
Intesa also rose (+0,28%). Crédit Suisse analysts estimate a final result of 2017 billion euros for the 4,33 financial year, equal to earnings per share of 0,21 euros. Analysts confirmed the target price of 3,2 euros and the "Outperform" rating. Kepler Cheuvreux, on the other hand, reduced the target price from 3,5 euros to 3,4 euros while maintaining the buy judgment.
In assets under management, positive reviews for Fineco Bank (+0,19% to 7,975 euro) promoted by Kepler Chevreux (target price at 8,8 euro from 8,5), Banca Imi and Equita (from 8 to 8,3 euro). Azimut fell (-2,29%) after the announcement of net outflows for October of 959 million and almost 300 million net of the consolidation of two Australian companies.
IN THE FALL OF MEDIASET, EXOR SUFFERS
While waiting for tomorrow's board of directors, Telecom Italia lost ground (-1,41%), despite the good indications coming from Tim Brazil (Ebitda up by 17,2%). The government has announced that it will present an amendment to the tax decree which provides for a cut in the penalties for violating the rules on golden power in the event of collaboration.
Worse Mediaset (-3,93%) due to the disappointing prospects for advertising in the fourth quarter. The stalemate in the dispute with Vivendi after the failure to acquire Mediaset Premium by the French giant also weighs. After the release of the quarterly results, Mediobanca analysts raised the target price on Mediaset from 3,61 euros to 3,76 euros. Opposite the opinion of Banca Akros, which reduced the valuation of the security from 3,7 euros to 3,55 euros. Similar indication from Credit Suisse, which cut the target price from 3,4 euros to 3 euros.
Down by 2,68% Exor, which yesterday announced its divestment in Banca Leonardo. Prysmian was also in the red (-2,44%) after the results of the first nine months of the year which showed falling revenues, growing margins and profit and confirmed the guidance on Ebitda 2017.
BIALETTI: ALIBABA ADOPTS THE MAN WITH A MUSTACHE
Outside the main list Maire Tecnimont suffers (-9,95%): after the release of the quarterly results, Mediobanca analysts lowered their opinion on the company, taking it from Outperform" (it will do better than the market) to "Neutral", following the strong rise achieved by the stock since the beginning of the year.
Negative record for Astaldi, after the postponement of the Board of Directors to 14 November. The company is preparing a capital increase of 200 million to deal with the debt. Yesterday the stock lost 17,01%. Banca Akros confirmed the veteran recommendation.
Among the small caps Bialetti shines (+1,34%) after the announcement of the agreement with the Asian e-commerce giant Alibaba for the online marketing of its range of coffee makers and houseware on the Tmall Global channel.
