Two-speed Western stock exchanges: European stock markets closed the first session of February higher and increased the gains already seen yesterday, while Wall Street, which started off quietly, is moving in opposition, after the powerful recovery of the Nasdaq recorded on the eve. This does not mean that January is one of the worst months in history for the US technology index and the worst since 2020 for practically everyone.
Today's manufacturing data for January and the performance of Ubs, which has given a big boost to the financial sector.
Thanks to the performance of the Swiss bank (+7,25%) Zurich rises by 0,1,24%. Banks also argue Business Square, queen in Europe, with an increase of 1,53%, which brings it momentum to 27.224. In the rest of the continent: Paris +1,43%; Amsterdam +1,33%; Madrid +1,3%; London +0,95%; Frankfurt + 0,94%.
On the other hand, government bonds in the euro area appear to be under pressure and yields are rising, pending the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday.
The 0,045-year Bund rate is above zero (+10%) and the 1,47-year BTP is at 137,9%, for a spread of XNUMX basis points.
The euro is making slight progress against the dollar, around 1,125. It's flat the Petroleum, on the eve of tomorrow's OPEC+ meeting. The gold rekindles.
Putin to Draghi: gas supplies to Italy stable
On the international front, the phone call between the Italian premier should be noted Mario Draghi and the Russian president Vladimir Putin. At the center of the conversation the Ukrainian crisis and bilateral relations. “President Draghi underlined the importance of working towards a de-escalation of tensions in the light of the serious consequences that an escalation of the crisis would have – reads a note from Palazzo Chigi. Furthermore, "a common commitment for a sustainable and lasting solution to the crisis and the need to rebuild a climate of confidence were agreed". For his part, Putin would have guaranteed to keep gas supplies stable for Italy.
In Piazza Affari, Nexi dominates, Saipem suffers
On the podium of the main price list of Piazza Affari rises nexi, +6,12%, in the light of the interview with Il Sole 24 Ore by the manager of the French competitor, Worldline, Marc-Henri Desportes, who looks with interest at the Italian market, after the acquisition of 80% of Axepta Italia. Therefore, other partnerships are probably on the way. Equita's analysts are positive on both Nexi and Worldline, recommending the purchase of the shares, for the former with a target price of 20 euros, for the latter at 90 euros.
Bene Moncler, +4,76%, which celebrates together with the luxury sector in Europe the brilliant results seen in recent days by a group such as lvmh (+0,76% in Paris), which largely beat expectations, achieving a turnover of 2021 billion euros in 64,2, 20% above 2019 levels. Berenberg raised the target price on the duvet company at 57 from 53 euros. In fashion it also shines Ovs + 10,2%.
Among oil-related stocks, it rebounds Tenaris +5,94%. The tears, however, did not end Saipem, -1,26%, after the -30% blow suffered yesterday following the downward estimates for 2021, which open the door to a capital increase. Eni shares raise their head, +1,11%.
The banks are confirmed on the shields, happy with the political stability that should be guaranteed for the next few months by the Mattarella-Draghi couple: Bper +3,86%; Bpm bank +2,52%; Understanding +1,93%; Mediobanca +2,08%; Unicredit +1,86%; Ps + 0,96%.
UBS numbers helped boost the sector, posting its best annual result since the global financial crisis, encouraging the bank to ramp up share buybacks and set more ambitious profit targets. Well Campari + 2,07% Ferrari +1,68% and Buzzi, the latter following higher-than-expected accounts from competitor HeidelbergCement.
Extend manufacturing in Europe, less in Italy
The macroeconomic agenda shows that in January manufacturing production in the euro area lengthened its pace, with the IHS Markit index rising to 58,7 points, from 58 in December. Good for Italy, even if the temperature has dropped a bit: the seasonally adjusted index in January is 58,3, down compared to the 62 quota indicated for the month of December. In any case, this is the 19th consecutive monthly improvement.
The expectation for the ECB is growing
Anticipation is growing for Thursday's meeting of the ECB, with the markets that - writes Reuters - "they discount two rate hikes of 10 basis points by the European central bank by the end of the year, with the possibility of a third move ”. A prospect that may worry Christine Lagarde, who has always said she believes a rate hike in 2022 is unlikely.
A very different attitude from the Fed, which from March will proceed with the first restrictive moves, although it maintains a certain ambiguity as to how many and to what extent the hikes will be. The attitude has an impact on the currency.
The idea is gaining momentum among investors and analysts that as central banks' trajectory moves towards rate hikes in major economies, "the euro may be more attractive than previously thought," argues Neil Mizuho Jones.
Meanwhile, Australia's central bank was more dovish than estimates today, ending its A$275 billion ($194,40 billion) bond-buying campaign as planned, but rejected bets on a hike. of market rates.
On the bond front, the Italian economy ministry has entrusted a group of banks comprising Bank of America, Citibank, HSBC, Societe Generale and UniCredit with the mandate for the syndicated placement of a new 10-year inflation-linked benchmark BTP of the euro area. The bond, according to law, will expire on May 15, 2033. The transaction will take place in the near future, in relation to market conditions, says the Treasury, also announcing that the BTp-i auction scheduled for February 23 "could be cancelled".
