Zelensky can still be considered the president of Ukraine? Volodymyr Zelensky's presidential term has been extended beyond its March 31 deadline, when Ukraine's presidential elections were supposed to take place, but martial law, effective February 24, 2022 and extended to May 13, 2024, explicitly prohibits the call to the polls . This leaves Zelensky in power at least until May, raising a delicate question for Ukrainian democracy: Zelensky will be legitimized to hold the office of president?
When he was elected, Zelensky promised to bring peace to Ukraine, root out the corrupt elite and serve only one term as president. However, time has brought with it a number of unexpected challenges. With Ukraine embroiled in a full-scale war to defend itself from Russian aggression and with domestic politics severely plagued by corruption, Zelensky is now accused of trying to usurp power.
Elections and security: Zelensky's dilemma
“It's not a question of democracy,” Zelensky assured on television in early November, “but only of safety“. He highlighted the numerous issues that need to be addressed, including the vote of front-line soldiers and the arrival of international observers in a war zone. Him too very high financial costs necessary to guarantee the safety of voters, international observers and the IT infrastructures where the results are collected, to prevent manipulation or fraud by foreign actors expert in cyber warfare, make the road to elections difficult. “Organizing elections in peacetime costs 5 billion hryvnia,” the Ukrainian leader underlined. They add to this discontent, internal divisions and uncertainty regarding international support. For much of 2023, Kiev's Atlantic and European supporters were convinced of the need for a presidential vote, albeit later than Washington they suddenly decided to remain silent on the matter.
The uncertainties of Ukrainian law: Zelensky's future in the balance
Doubts about Zelensky's stay after May 20 stem from the vagueness of the Ukrainian law. Ukrainian jurists point out that the absence of a mechanism for extending a president's term is a deliberate omission, in order to reduce the risk of abuses of power. At the same time, Ukrainian electoral law prohibits holding elections, both presidential and parliamentary, during a state of war. To hold elections, Ukraine would have to revoke, at least temporarily, the martial law in the case of a vote for Parliament or amend the law in the case of a vote for President. But there is another issue: even if the laws can be changed, the deadlines for the presidential elections have already passed (must be announced 100 days before election day).
According to officials after May 20, Zelensky will become interim president until the next election. However, his opponents interpret the law in such a way as to claim that he is the president of Ukrainian parliament to become acting president: this is what the Constitution considers to be next in the line of succession if the president is no longer able to carry out his duties.
There is also a precedent in the history of Ukraine. It happened in 2014, when Pres Viktor Yanukovych he fled the country amid a popular uprising in Kiev. After the sudden departure of Yanukovych, the speaker of parliament Oleksandr Turchynov became interim president. Then he passed the power to Petro Poroshenko, winner of the subsequent presidential elections.
Not surprisingly, Zelensky is not a supporter of this option. AND Ruslan Stefanchuk, the current speaker of parliament and member of the pro-Zelensky Servant of the People party has already publicly confirmed that Zelensky will be interim president until elections are held.
Growing internal divisions cast a shadow on legitimacy
However, parliament is no longer as clearly pro-Zelensky as it once was. Davyd Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People faction in parliament, said the political consensus that was there at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion is collapsed. This could mean that a different speaker of parliament could push to become interim president. Given the growing divisions within Servant of the People, Zelensky's opponents may seek to restructure the parliamentary majority after May 20 to force the president to hand over power to a new speaker of parliament.
La Constitutional Court of Ukraine could resolve this situation, but Zelensky's office does not seem willing to involve it. First, such a move could be interpreted as internal evidence of doubts about its legitimacy. Secondly, Zelensky is involved in a long one dispute with the judges of the Constitutional Court for their resistance to anti-corruption legislation. The court could, therefore, issue a ruling that would further complicate the situation.
For Zelensky's main opponent, the former president Poroshenko, the question of legitimacy is a useful way to put pressure on the government, pushing it towards a broader coalition. Some former allies of Zelensky are expressing similar views. Former speaker of parliament Dmytro Razumkov believes that the president's term expires on May 20 and that he should hand over power to the speaker of parliament. The former influential MP from Servant of the People Oleksandr Dubinsky (currently under investigation for treason) directly accused Zelensky of usurping power.
Zelensky under siege: declining popularity and the shadows of Russian propaganda
The main problem is that Zelensky is losing popularity. After dismissal of General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine's top military commander, who has shaken public trust in the Ukrainian leader, the president began to threaten that any attempt to question his legitimacy will be seen as part of an enemy plot to destabilize the country.
Of course, the Kremlin will do its best to amplify questions about Zelensky's legitimacy: He has been a mainstay of Russian propaganda for a decade. Their narrative is obvious: the Russian president Vladimir Putin was elect for a fifth term in Russia's March presidential election, while Zelensky canceled the elections in Ukraine. The fact that the Russian elections are conveyed is a secondary detail.
Post-Zelensky, two hypotheses: national unity government or war cabinet?
These new developments raise the question of what direction the government will take after Zelensky's term expires. Two possible scenarios were discussed: the creation of a “political-military cabinet“, a temporary government focused on managing the ongoing crisis and conflict, or a “government of national unity“, involving a broader coalition of political parties to address the country's internal and external challenges.
To underline this need Ostap Drozdov, Ukrainian journalist, comparing the situation with Israel. “In Israel, in the space of half a day, they formed a government of national unity that includes the majority, opposition and men in uniform. Putting aside the internal diatribes, no one has proclaimed himself supreme ruler, king or sheikh of the entire country, which is now governed by a political-military cabinet, not by politicians seeking consensus."
Ukrainian democracy, which has always had smooth transitions of power (which distinguishes it from most other post-Soviet countries), is now subjected to one of its most difficult tests. And how it responds to this challenge could define the course of Ukrainian politics for years to come.
