What is it really about? Volodymyr Zelensky with an offensive – that Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia – which highlighted Russia's military and strategic vulnerability? It intends to force the Russians to divert resources and attention from the main front, that of Donbass? Or more: the goal is really to coerce Vladimir Putin to negotiate? The move, which could mark a turning point in the war, also received the green light from the European Union.
What is certain is that the Ukrainian president acknowledged for the first time that Kiev is carrying out operations to "push the war" into Russian territory. “The chief of staff Sirsky has already reported several times about the front, our actions and pushing the war into the territory of the aggressor,” Zelensky said in his evening speech yesterday. “Thank you to every unit of our defense forces who make this possible. Ukraine shows that it really knows how to restore justice and ensures exactly the kind of pressure that is needed: pressure on the aggressor,” he concluded.
Russia, in the meantime, has decided to use thermobaric warheads to stop the Ukrainian advance on Kursk: “Ukrainian mercenaries hit,” it was said yesterday. According to Moscow, Kiev threatens the nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, the Kremlin announces the introduction of a special anti-terrorism regime in three regions on the border with Ukraine. And Belarus says it has deployed missiles against Kiev's drones that flew over its skies and were shot down.
Zelensky's counteroffensive: three hypotheses
Observers, therefore, continue to question the objectives of the Ukrainian incursion: for some analysts, the offensive could be designed to capture and hold territory to use as a bargaining chip to ensure the liberation of the Russian-occupied regions. Such a move, however, would require a huge commitment from Ukrainian troops to counter the Russians for as long as necessary.
Another possibility is that Kiev wants to force Russian forces to relieve front-line positions in eastern and southern Ukraine, to strengthen its defenses.
While a third hypothesis is that Ukraine wants capture the Kursk nuclear power plant to use it as leverage and force the Russians to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia power plant. It would be an enormous undertaking for Kiev's troops, but in the meantime Moscow is sounding the alarm: further Ukrainian advances in Kursk would constitute a "direct threat" to the nuclear power plant, said the president of the Russian atomic agency Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, in a conversation with the head of the IAEA Rafael Grossi who only a few hours earlier had called on the parties to exercise moderation, to avoid an accident "which could have serious radioactive consequences" in Russia, Ukraine and beyond.
Tricarico: what dividend for Zelensky?
“The incursion of Ukrainian troops into Russian territory, in the Kursk region, and their penetration for about ten km beyond the internationally recognized borders is a new fact that has taken everyone by surprise, starting with the Russians, and whose purpose is still to be deciphered in its underlying intentions. What is certain is that a tactical event of these characteristics has a very limited significance from an operational point of view, a simple flaw in the Russian defense system which will be promptly mended". He tells theAdnkronos the general Leonardo Tricarico, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force and current president of the ICSA Foundation, commenting on the advancement of the Ukrainian army towards the Kursk nuclear power plant.
“It is unlikely to think of a shift in the military balance which therefore continues to maintain the characteristics, now consolidated since the initial phases of the Russian invasion, of a war of position and attrition, a condition of stalemate which, if it were to persist, will lead to limited Russian territorial progress in the face of commitment and enormous losses, including human losses. The dividend that Zelensky can collect from a political point of view is different, and of the public, international and internal perception on both the Russian and Ukrainian fronts – he continues – It is the first time that Ukrainian regular troops invade Russian territory and collect a limited but evident military success. The defeat is there for all to see even if its effects will be reabsorbed in a short time, so much so that it makes little sense for Zelensky to make use of it in a hypothetical future negotiating table. What happened in the most recent Ukrainian offensive operations in which paying and highly significant military targets such as a tactical fighter air base and some Russian air defense radar and missile installations were hit was different."
“Operations which, at least according to what was reported by media sources, appeared 'clean' and precise, almost as if the Ukrainians were using in a professionally correct manner the precision launch armament supplied by the West and perhaps even the first operational F16s,” he adds the general.
Camporini: a message from Kiev for Moscow
“Coming from a rather long period of passivity or rather of defensive attitude, I believe that with Kiev's offensive the aim was to convey the message to Moscow we can still hurt you a lot. One way possibly to suggest that perhaps it really is time to sit down at the table, but with serious proposals, not inadmissible like those that Moscow has made up to now." She says it, stillAdnkronos, the general Vincent Camporini, former Chief of Defense Staff, commenting on the advance of the Ukrainian army towards the Kursk nuclear power plant.
“What is impressive – he continues – is the unpreparedness of the Russians, as if they had taken for granted that there was no risk and therefore such an important part of the border area could easily be left undefended. It is quite surprising that no preventive action was taken."
