Very high voltage in Venezuela, on the eve of elezioni prezidenziali which according to polls should put an end to Chavismo after 25 years: voting will take place on Sunday 28 July. It is the outgoing president who is stirring things up Nicolas Maduro, of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, the one inspired by the Bolivarian revolution and brought to power by the late Hugo Chavez of which Maduro, a former bus driver, was the dolphin. Having led the South American country continuously since 2013, Maduro can smell the smell more than ever defeat and the end of an era: forced by the United States to admit the opposition's candidacy and the presence of international observers during the vote in exchange for an easing of sanctions on oil, today the leader finds himself well behind in the polls, which give the challenger Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia in advantage by 20 or even 30 points. And for this reason already in the days preceding the vote he is playing the chaos card, accusing his opponents of being fascists and claiming - to scare the electorate - that a victory for Gonzalez Urrutia would cause a "bloodbath" and a "civil war". . In short, Maduro is trying everything to overturn the predictions and above all he is suggesting that he will not accept defeat peacefully, poisoning the climate in the country and encouraging clashes and tensions.
Maduro isolated: elections in Venezuela amid repression and discontent
The outgoing president, seeking a third term, is increasingly isolated. Last year there seemed to have been signs of relaxation with Washington, which led to a partial suspension of the oil embargo in exchange for an exchange of prisoners: the White House gave the green light to the release of Alex Saab, a man very close to Maduro, while Caracas released 28 prisoners, including 10 Americans. However, the agreement also provided for correct and transparent electoral competition, with the presence of observers from both the USA and Europe. Here, however, Maduro has not kept his word and in fact since last April Venezuela has been back in the grip of fines, after he was prevented from running for office both a Maria Corina Machado, who had won the opposition primaries, and to his dauphin Corina Yoris. In the end, the name of the almost unknown former ambassador Edmundo González Urrutia emerged out of nowhere, and despite his improvised candidacy he is flying in the polls, demonstrating a now consolidated discontent with what can for all intents and purposes be considered a dictatorship, or rather a democracy. The Maduro regime he is in fact accused of hundreds of human rights violations: in the last six months alone, 46 opponents have been arrested, but according to the UN there would be thousands from 2014 to today and 7 million people, practically a quarter of the population, have been forced to flee abroad due to repression e poverty.
Maduro's regime is on its last legs, but the transition will be turbulent
In fact, in recent years the economic situation has worsened, with a frightening growth in poverty, due to ainflation which in 2018 had even reached 130.000%. Venezuela's GDP per capita, which in 2015 exceeded 10.000 dollars, is today just 1.600 dollars, according to estimates from UCAB university. The minimum salary it is 3,6 dollars a month, by far the lowest in Latin America and among the lowest in the world: in Venezuela 52% of the population lives below the poverty line. As if that wasn't enough, Maduro continues to challenge the international community: last December he called a meeting referendum-farce to justify the invasion and subsequent annexation of Essequibo, a part of the territory of neighboring Guyana rich in offshore oil. The leader then preferred to concentrate on the electoral campaign, also because the United States, which effectively controls Guyana through the interests of Exxon, had made it clear to him that it was better to leave it alone. But for a few weeks the winds of war had even blown over South America, to the embarrassment of the other leaders in the area. Finally, the last diplomatic disgrace: in defiance of the agreements made, Maduro has recently denied theinput in the country, to monitor the elections, to the European Union representative for human rights, the Swede Olof Skoog. Caracas justified the decision with the restrictive measures decided by Brussels against 54 Chavista officials, subjected to a travel ban and freezing of assets for violating human rights and compromising democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela. The regime's days are numbered, but the handover will not be painless.
