The trend of labor market in Veneto is a good regional indicator for evaluating the state of health of a significant part of Italian manufacturing. The latest available data refers to the whole of 2024, which ends with "lights and shadows" to be revealed within the numbers processed by Veneto Lavoro. Let's start with theincrease in dependent jobs (+28.500): a lower result than in recent years, confirming a freeze in growth that has become even more marked starting from the second half of the year. How did this balance form? The dynamic was determined by a slight reduction in hiring (-1%) and with the consequent increase in terminations (+1%), among which we note the increase in end-of-term contract conclusions and the decrease in resignations. Compared to 2023, hiring shows a decline among Italian workers (-5%), women (-3%) and workers in the central age groups (-3%), while it increases among foreigners (+8%) and over 55s (+4%).
Labour market dynamics and contracts
Veneto Lavoro also reports a reduced mobility of the labor market regional: “the positions at indefinitely increase by 29.100 units compared to the +34.600 recorded in 2023, following a decrease both of the assumptions that of the transformations from term contracts. The trend in apprenticeships is negative, with 2.700 fewer activations in the year, a -6% drop in start-ups and an increase in conversions to permanent contracts of +18%. On the other hand, the time determined, whose annual balance is positive (+2.200) and higher than that of the previous year (+1.600)”. And again: “part-time contracts are growing (+2%), increasing especially among men (+7%) and linked to specific sector dynamics in agriculture and in some areas of the tertiary sector”. job growth is concentrated in the provinces of Verona (+ 7.200), Venice (+5.500) and Padova (+5.100), followed by Treviso (+ 4.700), Vicenza (+ 3.200), Belluno (+1.500) and Rovigo (+ 1.400).
Sectors in difficulty and labor crisis
From a sectoral point of view, the data relating to theagriculture show an increase of +4.400 dependent jobs (more than those gained in 2023), the tertiary sector +19.400, while theindustry stops at +4.700, less than half of the employment balance recorded in 2023, with a 7% drop in hiring. I share metalworker, which in Veneto has deep connections with the global automotive value chains, presents a balance far from that of 2023 (just 200 more jobs against the +3.700 of the previous year) and a 14% drop in hiring. The job market linked to the fashion system (textiles, clothing and footwear), totanning industry and wood-furniture which close the year with a negative balance and a sharp decline in hiring. The most worrying figure, which does not fully reveal the "slowdown in employment" in Veneto, concerns the recourse to redundancy fund. In a note released at the beginning of the year, INPS confirmed for the quarter September-November 2024 a 21% increase in regional applications for ordinary redundancy payments, concentrated in particular in the provinces of Vicenza and Treviso and mostly related to situations of "lack of orders or work orders" or "temporary market crisis".
An Uncertain Future: The Phenomenon of “Labour Hoarding” and the Flight of Youth
If the Veneto labor market appears to be frozen by the current low-dynamic European situation, another element emerges under the surface, especially among the artisans of Vicenza and the piedmont area, which is not incorporated into the statistics: the crisis in recent months could have potentially created even more repercussions on the labor market numbers, but even in the smallest companies the dismissal of more or less specialized figures (in many cases who know how to do a certain type of work) is postponed as long as possible, and is then difficult to recover on the market. This is the phenomenon of the so-called "labor hoarding”: companies prefer – rightly – to retain qualified workers even in the most acute phases of production decline. The phenomenon is perfectly connected with the mismatch structural which accompanies the more generaleconomy in Nordest: the demographics are declining, the most qualified professional and technical figures are in short supply and, as also highlighted by the latest surveys by the Fondazione Nordest, the “escape” of young people abroad. Perhaps the most underestimated issue for the future of the Veneto economy.
